(Replace) Might 6, 2026, 10:36 AM GMT+1: Article up to date with X assertion from Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
In an announcement posted on his Reality Social web page late Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump introduced that Undertaking Freedom “will likely be paused for a brief interval”.
“Based mostly on the request of Pakistan and different Nations, the large Navy Success that we have now had through the Marketing campaign in opposition to the Nation of Iran and, moreover, the truth that Nice Progress has been made towards a Full and Ultimate Settlement with Representatives of Iran, we have now mutually agreed that, whereas the Blockade will stay in full power and impact, Undertaking Freedom (The Motion of Ships by way of the Strait of Hormuz) will likely be paused for a brief time frame to see whether or not or not the Settlement could be finalized and signed,” the assertion famous.
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In a launch posted on its web site on Might 3, U.S. Central Command (Centcom) introduced that the U.S. navy was supporting the launch of Undertaking Freedom within the Strait of Hormuz.
“U.S. Central Command forces will start supporting Undertaking Freedom, Might 4, to revive freedom of navigation for industrial delivery by way of the Strait of Hormuz,” that launch said.
“The mission, directed by the President, will assist service provider vessels searching for to freely transit by way of the important worldwide commerce hall,” it added, noting that “1 / 4 of the world’s oil commerce at sea and important volumes of gasoline and fertilizer merchandise are transported by way of the strait”.
The discharge highlighted that U.S. navy assist to Undertaking Freedom would come with guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based plane, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.
Centcom Commander Brad Cooper stated within the launch, “our assist for this defensive mission is important to regional safety and the worldwide economic system as we additionally keep the naval blockade”.
In an announcement posted on his X web page late Monday, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, the International Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, stated, “occasions in Hormuz clarify that there’s no navy resolution to a political disaster”.
“As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the U.S. ought to be cautious of being dragged again into quagmire by ill-wishers,” he added.
In that publish, Araghchi additionally described Undertaking Freedom as “Undertaking Impasse”.
In an announcement posted on his X web page on Wednesday, Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, stated, “I’m grateful to President Donald Trump for his brave management and well timed announcement relating to the pause in Undertaking Freedom within the Strait of Hormuz”.
“President Trump’s gracious response to the request made by Pakistan and different brotherly international locations, notably the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and my pricey brother Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia H.R.H Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will go a great distance in direction of advancing regional peace, stability and reconciliation throughout this delicate interval,” he added.
“Pakistan stays firmly dedicated to supporting all efforts that promote restraint and a peaceable decision of conflicts by way of dialogue and diplomacy. We’re very hopeful that the present momentum will result in a long-lasting settlement that secures sturdy peace and stability for the area and past,” he continued.
Commonplace Chartered Financial institution Vitality Analysis Head Emily Ashford warned, in a report despatched to Rigzone by the Commonplace Chartered staff late Tuesday, that “the delicate ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran seem[ed]… to be fracturing”.
“Key developments over the previous week embrace the launch of ‘Undertaking Freedom’, a U.S. naval operation designed to bypass Iranian-controlled delivery lanes and supply escorts to industrial vessels seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a willingness to alleviate power circulate disruption militarily,” Ashford added.
“Iran has responded by repeating warnings that it’ll strike transit it deems unauthorized, reinforcing its blockade. There have been credible studies of Iranian drone and missile assaults on vessels and industrial delivery, with Iran claiming that it struck a U.S. warship, which was denied by Washington,” Ashford continued.
The Vitality Analysis Head additionally said within the report that there have been diplomatic indicators {that a} de-escalation channel stays open.
“Iran has submitted a multi-point proposal, which the U.S. seems keen to evaluate,” Ashford stated.
“Third-party mediation additionally continues … We anticipate this dual-track technique of navy escalation (though at current no large-scale land or air marketing campaign escalation) and simultaneous diplomacy to proceed within the close to time period,” Ashford famous.
Rigzone has contacted the White Home for touch upon the Commonplace Chartered Financial institution report and Araghchi’s X publish and Iran’s Ministry of International Affairs for touch upon Trump’s Reality Social publish, Sharif’s X publish, and the Commonplace Chartered report. On the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
An evaluation piece despatched to Rigzone by the S&P World staff yesterday, which was penned by Jim Burkhard – who heads S&P World Vitality crude oil analysis – and the S&P World Vitality Crude Oil Markets staff, warned that oil markets have been dealing with a “precarious double depletion”, noting {that a} “precipitous fall in demand and a document drawdown of crude inventories [was] occurring concurrently”.
“Two seemingly contradictory developments occurring in tandem – a drastic fall in world crude oil demand and a document drawdown in crude oil inventories – exhibits that the complete severity of the best provide disruption in historical past is but to come back,” the evaluation said.
“Oil demand is at the moment experiencing the sharpest fall ever aside from the 2020 Covid-19 expertise, with complete liquids demand within the second quarter of 2026 projected to be almost 5 million barrels per day lower than a yr earlier,” the evaluation added.
“S&P World Vitality now expects full-year 2026 liquids demand progress to be almost two million barrels per day lower than in 2025,” it continued.
“On the similar time, April noticed a record-setting decline in world crude oil inventories – estimated at almost 200 million barrels (a each day fee of 6.6 million barrels per day). The second quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see the biggest quarterly crude stock drawdown in historical past at 5.5 million barrels per day,” it went on to state.
The evaluation revealed that S&P World Vitality expects that, if Hormuz was reopened, “it might take an extra seven months at minimal to completely restore upstream manufacturing, assuming no everlasting injury and provide chains function easily”.
“A restoration might take longer if there may be injury to ports or different transport and loading infrastructure,” it warned, including that “the longer the strait stays closed, the extra probably the availability disaster extends into late 2026 and into 2027”.
The evaluation flagged two “key signposts” to look at going ahead – U.S. crude inventory ranges and the market conduct of China, “together with different giant importing markets in Europe and Asia”.
“U.S. crude inventory ranges don’t but present a robust pull from the worldwide oil market to offset the lack of Center East provide,” the evaluation stated.
“Bigger than typical declines in crude oil and product inventories, together with rising export volumes, could be indicators that bodily market stress in Asia, the Center East and Europe is reaching the US,” it added.
“China’s shopping for and buying and selling conduct can even be a significant component. Within the 12 months earlier than the Center East struggle, China imported 11 million to 13 million barrels per day of crude oil every month,” it famous.
“A projected reduce of two.5 million barrels per day in crude imports, decrease refinery runs and using product stockpiles might restrain upward stress on crude oil costs. A burst of shopping for from China would have the other impact,” the evaluation continued.
Burkhard said within the evaluation that, “whereas there have been important impacts to this point, the oil market has remained considerably cushioned from the complete impression of the of the lack of 15 million barrels per day in provide”.
“That the cumulative provide loss is now approaching one billion barrels is a staggering determine that inventories can’t cowl indefinitely. An inevitable market reckoning is coming,” he warned.
“Earlier than the struggle, any market veteran wouldn’t have been shocked if crude oil costs soared far larger than they’ve based mostly on a two-month lack of 15 million barrels per day,” he added.
“What’s an amazing curtailment of demand continues to be being outstripped by the lack of provide. That signifies that larger crude oil and refined product costs are nonetheless to come back,” Burkhard went on to warn.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
