In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone this week by the Macquarie crew, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, outlined that they count on one other U.S. crude stock draw “amidst elevated exports”.
“We’re forecasting U.S. crude inventories down 5.0 million barrels for the week ending Might 1,” the strategists famous within the report.
“This follows a 6.2 million barrel draw within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing considerably tighter than our expectations,” they added.
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“For the week ending 5/1, from refineries, we search for a slight improve in crude runs (+0.1 million barrels per day),” they continued, warning that the timing of turnarounds stays a key variable on this week’s crude stability.
“Amongst web imports, we mannequin a rise, with exports modestly decrease (-0.4 million barrels per day) and imports modestly increased (+0.4 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation,” the strategists mentioned.
They famous within the report that the timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility within the weekly crude stability, “significantly as exports stay elevated”.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a discount (-0.3 million barrels per day),” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a smaller SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] draw (-5.2 million barrels) for the week ending 5/1,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists additionally famous within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for attracts in gasoline (-0.4 million barrels) and distillate (-3.8 million barrels) with jet shares barely increased (+0.2 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.6 million barrels per day for the week ending Might 1,” they continued.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, which was launched on April 29 and included knowledge for the week ending April 24, the U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, decreased by 6.2 million barrels from the week ending April 17 to the week ending April 24.
This EIA report confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 459.5 million barrels on April 24, 465.7 million barrels on April 17, and 440.4 million barrels on April 25, 2025. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 397.9 million barrels on April 24, 405.0 million barrels on April 17, and 398.5 million barrels on April 25, 2025, this EIA report revealed.
Whole petroleum shares – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gasoline ethanol, kerosene sort jet gasoline, distillate gasoline oil, residual gasoline oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.645 billion barrels on April 24, in accordance with the EIA’s newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing. Whole petroleum shares had been down 24.1 million barrels week on week and up 34.5 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the EIA report identified.
In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone final week, Macquarie strategists, together with Chancellor, revealed that they had been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be down by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending April 24.
“This follows a 1.9 million barrel construct within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing comparatively near our expectations,” the Macquarie strategists mentioned in that report.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on Might 6. It’ll embrace knowledge for the week ending Might 1. The report states that it supplies “well timed info on provide and chosen costs of crude oil and principal petroleum merchandise”.
“It supplies the trade, press, planners, policymakers, shoppers, analysts, and State and native governments with a prepared, dependable supply of present info,” the report provides.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
