(Replace) April 21, 2026, 3:00 PM GMT: Article up to date all through.
The US remains to be in the dead of night on whether or not Iran will participate in recent talks to finish the battle earlier than a ceasefire expires on Wednesday, with the edges deadlocked on points together with entry to the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump mentioned Tehran had “no alternative” however to ship a delegation to negotiations in Pakistan, along with his vice chairman, JD Vance, primed to fly to Islamabad on Tuesday. The US is in a robust negotiating place, he informed CNBC, and is “able to go” with a resumption of bombing if a breakthrough is not reached.
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Iran has but to substantiate its attendance in Pakistan with Trump’s ceasefire deadline quick approaching, elevating the chance of a resumption of preventing in a seven-week battle that’s killed 1000’s of individuals and triggered a rising power provide disaster.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran’s delegation through the first spherical of talks earlier this month, mentioned his nation wouldn’t “settle for negotiations underneath the shadow of threats.”
Trump mentioned he is “going to finish up with a fantastic deal” and {that a} US naval blockade on Iranian ports would keep in place till an settlement. He does not need to lengthen the ceasefire with Iran, which is because of expire late Wednesday US time, he informed CNBC.
Referring to the US seize of an unspecified ship on Monday, Trump mentioned it “had some issues on it, which wasn’t very good, a present from China, maybe.” He added that this had come as a shock attributable to what he referred to as an “understanding” with President Xi Jinping. Trump did not present additional particulars on the incident.
Trump mentioned earlier this month that Xi informed him Beijing isn’t offering weapons to Iran. He is threatened 50 % tariffs on items from international locations who do, which may upend the US-China commerce relationship if he follows by means of.
Ghalibaf has mentioned the Strait of Hormuz – by means of which a couple of fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied pure gasoline exports flowed earlier than the battle – will stay closed to most industrial visitors for now, because it has since simply after the beginning of the battle on Feb. 28.
The standoff underscores the uncertainty surrounding recent talks, even after Trump beforehand mentioned negotiations may start as early as Tuesday. The US president has threatened strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure if diplomacy fails.
A pause in hostilities has principally held for 2 weeks after a month of preventing, throughout which the US and Israel bombed Iran whereas the Islamic Republic fired missiles and drones throughout the Persian Gulf, hitting key power infrastructure. Israel has additionally largely paused assaults on the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon since a truce was agreed final week.
The battle has harm Trump politically and result in fears of an inflation disaster and slower financial progress the world over.
Iranian officers have stopped in need of ruling out participation within the talks in Pakistan. It is doable the edges attain a preliminary settlement to reopen Hormuz and finish the US blockade, whereas leaving longer-term points associated to Iran’s nuclear and missile program to be resolved in later talks.
Oil held regular on Tuesday at simply over $95 a barrel and is a couple of third extra expensive than earlier than the battle started. Costs do not but mirror the size of the availability disruption attributable to the Hormuz closure, analysts mentioned, a state of affairs that may solely worsen the longer a deal stays elusive.
“The size appears to be one thing the place the market can’t truly get its head round it,” Trafigura Group’s Chief Economist Saad Rahim mentioned on the FT Commodities World Summit in Lausanne.
Frederic Lasserre, head of research at dealer Gunvor Group, mentioned if the battle persists for one more month, oil markets will hit tank bottoms – a phrase which means markets run out of stockpiles.
Trump’s push for talks contrasts with the tone of Iranian officers, a distinction that turned extra pronounced after the US intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel on Sunday. Iran mentioned final week it might reopen the Strait of Hormuz, solely to reverse the choice hours later because the blockade by itself ships continued.
Past Hormuz, one other fraught subject is Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has demanded that Iran forswear any ambitions for a nuclear weapon and hand over stockpiles of enriched uranium. Tehran has balked at giving up its uranium and has mentioned its nuclear program is for peaceable functions.
Trump and advisers see his various feedback about what would possibly occur if the ceasefire deadline lapses as creating strategic ambiguity that the US may exploit in talks, mentioned a White Home official, who requested anonymity to explain inner considering.
But that uncertainty may create misunderstandings with Iranian negotiators, who’re additionally grappling with inner divisions among the many nation’s leaders.
Conservative components throughout the Iranian authorities and army management, together with these on the prime of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have taken the continuation of the US blockade as an extra sign that Trump cannot be trusted, based on US and Iranian officers.
The IRGC’s chief, Ahmad Vahidi, is pushing for a tricky negotiating stance, individuals conversant in the dynamics mentioned.
There’s a divide between the likes of Vahidi and fewer ideological figures, resembling President Masoud Pezeshkian and Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi, who’re extra inclined to achieve an accord with Washington, mentioned the US and Iranian officers, asking to not be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Trump can be going through stress at residence to finish the battle, with polls exhibiting most People disapprove of the battle. The president campaigned on maintaining the US out of international entanglements and decreasing shopper costs, two pledges strained by his resolution to start out the battle.
He has sought to assuage these worries, insisting that gasoline costs will fall shortly as soon as the battle ends and that the US is just not embroiled in a years-long battle. US gasoline pump costs have risen above $4 a gallon on common, the best stage in virtually 4 years.
