The U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil manufacturing forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched not too long ago.
In its March STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, will common 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.76 million barrels per day in 2026. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in February, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, would common 13.59 million barrels per day this yr and 13.73 million barrels per day subsequent yr.
The EIA’s newest STEO outlined that the group sees U.S. crude oil output coming in at 13.50 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025, 13.56 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.64 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 13.77 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 13.81 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 13.83 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.72 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.71 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr.
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In its earlier STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil manufacturing would common 13.40 million barrels per day within the first quarter of this yr, 13.57 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.65 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 13.74 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 13.77 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 13.82 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.68 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.63 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of 2026.
The Federal Gulf of America is projected to supply 1.80 million barrels per day of the 2025 forecast of 13.61 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast of 13.76 million barrels per day, the EIA confirmed in its March STEO. Alaska is projected to supply 0.42 million barrels per day of the 2025 complete and 0.44 million barrels per day of the 2026 complete, and Decrease 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, are anticipated to supply 11.39 million barrels per day in 2025 and 11.52 million barrels per day subsequent yr, the EIA’s March STEO confirmed.
In its earlier STEO, the EIA highlighted that the Federal Gulf of Mexico would produce 1.80 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.83 million barrels per day in 2026. That STEO projected that Alaska would produce 0.42 million barrels per day this yr and 0.43 million barrels per day subsequent yr, and that Decrease 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), would produce 11.37 million barrels per day in 2025 and 11.47 million barrels per day in 2026.
In its February STEO, the EIA famous that, on January 20, Government Order 14172 directed the U.S. Division of Inside to rename GOM because the Gulf of America within the Geographic Names Data System (GNIS) inside 30 days. In that STEO, the EIA stated it follows GNIS naming conventions and said that it’s going to mirror the identify change upon the GNIS replace.
An information web page on the EIA web site exhibiting annual U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil, which was final up to date on February 28, 2025, and which incorporates knowledge from 1859 to 2024, confirmed that annual U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil averaged 13.216 million barrels per day in 2024. Previous to this, annual U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil had by no means averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra, the information revealed. The closest it got here to an annual common of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.935 million barrels per day, the information confirmed.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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