In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie group, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be down by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending March 14.
“For this week’s crude steadiness, from refineries, we mannequin crude runs up modestly (+0.2 million barrels per day) following a robust print final week,” the strategists famous within the report.
“Amongst web imports, we mannequin a significant discount, with exports sharply increased (+0.9 million barrels per day) and imports additionally up (+0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation,” they added.
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The strategists said within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude steadiness.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a average improve (+0.3 million barrels per day) this week,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate one other small improve in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares (+0.3 million barrels) this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists went on to state within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for attracts in gasoline (-3.0 million barrels) and distillate (-0.6 million barrels), with a construct in jet (+1.0 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.6 million barrels per day for the week ending March 14,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, which was launched on March 12 and included knowledge for the week ending March 7, the U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 1.4 million barrels from the week ending February 28 to the week ending March 7.
The report confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 435.2 million barrels on March 7, 433.8 million barrels on February 28, and 447.0 million barrels on March 8, 2024. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 395.6 million barrels on March 7, 395.3 million barrels on February 28, and 361.6 million barrels on March 8, 2024, the report outlined.
Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gasoline ethanol, kerosene kind jet gasoline, distillate gasoline oil, residual gasoline oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.594 billion barrels on March 7, the report confirmed. Complete petroleum shares have been down 5.7 million barrels week on week and up 15.2 million barrels yr on yr, the report revealed.
In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie group on March 10, Macquarie strategists revealed that they have been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories could be up 5.7 million barrels for the week ending March 7.
“This compares to our early search for the week which anticipated a 7.9 million barrel construct, and a 3.6 million barrel construct realized for the week ending February 28,” the strategists mentioned in that report.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on March 19. It’ll embrace knowledge for the week ending March 14.
In a separate report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie group on March 12, Macquarie projected that the WTI worth will common $64.75 per barrel in 2025 and $58.38 per barrel in 2026.
Macquarie sees the commodity coming in at $70.00 per barrel within the first quarter of this yr, $62.00 per barrel within the second quarter, $63.50 per barrel throughout the third and fourth quarters, $58.50 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026, $56.00 per barrel within the second quarter, $57.50 per barrel within the third quarter, and $61.50 per barrel within the fourth quarter of 2026, based on this report.
“We’re modestly lowering our FY’25 oil worth outlook, with WTI averaging ~$65 per barrel, down from ~$66 per barrel as dangers are barely weighed to the draw back,” Macquarie strategists mentioned in that report.
“As well as, we’ve elevated our FY’25 U.S. pure fuel outlook. Nonetheless, our 2025 and 2026 pure fuel worth targets of $3.90 per million British thermal models (MMBTU) and $3.60 per MMBTU sit comfortably beneath the ahead curve,” they added.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
