World oil demand has made a robust begin to 2025, analysts at Commonplace Chartered Financial institution, together with Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell, mentioned in a report despatched to Rigzone by Horsnell on Thursday.
“Primarily based on quite a lot of nationwide sources and the 19 March Joint Organizations Information Initiative (JODI) launch, we estimate that demand averaged 102.77 million barrels per day in January, a yr on yr improve of two.19 million barrels per day,” the Commonplace Chartered Financial institution analysts mentioned within the report.
“That is according to the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) estimate for January that put demand at 102.74 million barrels per day and development at 1.85 million barrels per day,” they added.
- Advertisement -
Within the report, the Commonplace Chartered Financial institution analysts famous that January is normally the seasonal low level for international demand and mentioned they count on demand “to maneuver above 105.0 million barrels per day for the primary time in June earlier than reaching a 2025 excessive of 105.6 million barrels per day in August”.
“Our forecast for 2025 demand development stands at 1.41 million barrels per day. After weakening in H2-2024, our forecast is now again the place it stood at its initiation in January 2024,” they added.
“Whereas the principle draw back threat to demand comes from U.S. tariff coverage and the financial uncertainty it creates, for now demand-side fundamentals seem strong regardless of detrimental sentiment,” they continued.
The Commonplace Chartered Financial institution analysts said within the report that they count on international demand to exceed provide by 0.9 million barrels per day within the second quarter and by 0.5 million barrels per day within the third quarter.
Rigzone has contacted the Trump transition staff and the White Home for touch upon Commonplace Chartered Financial institution’s report. On the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
In a analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff late Wednesday, analysts at J.P. Morgan mentioned, “as of March 18, international oil demand averaged 101.8 million barrels per day, a yr over yr improve of 1.5 million barrels per day, aligning with our month-to-month projections”.
In a separate analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on March 12, J.P. Morgan analysts said that, “as of March 11, international oil demand averaged 102.2 million barrels per day, increasing 1.7 million barrels per day yr over yr and exceeding our projected improve for the month by 60,000 barrels per day”.
In one other analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on March 5, analysts at J.P. Morgan mentioned, “in February, international oil demand averaged 103.6 million barrels per day, marking a yr over yr improve of 1.6 million barrels per day and falling wanting our projected 1.8 million barrel per day rise for the month”.
“As we transition into March, demand for oil is predicted to be primarily pushed by gasoline and jet gas, whereas the necessity for heating oil is anticipated to say no,” the analysts added in that analysis word.
In its newest quick time period power outlook, which was launched final week, the EIA projected that international consumption will common 104.13 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.30 million barrels per day in 2026.
That STEO forecast that demand will are available in at 103.85 million barrels per day within the first quarter of this yr, 103.74 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 104.46 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 104.45 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 104.72 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 104.98 million barrels per day within the second quarter of subsequent yr, 105.77 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 105.74 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
In its earlier STEO, which was launched in February, the EIA projected that international consumption would common 104.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.18 million barrels per day in 2026.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
