In an perception report launched lately, analysts at Wooden Mackenzie outlined that U.S. tight oil manufacturing “will shrink with out a crash occasion for the primary time” in 2026.
“Holding oil manufacturing flat within the U.S. at present requires over two million barrels per day of recent provide,” the analysts mentioned within the report.
“We anticipate output to fall by 200,000 barrels per day in 2026 with WTI costs 20 % decrease than 2025,” they added.
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“This sign might change market mentality and bolster worldwide typical funding plans. However warning remains to be wanted. That 2026 tight oil deficit is crammed by Guyana alone, and U.S. liquids will return to development in 2028,” the Wooden Mackenzie analysts continued.
In its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO) on the time of writing, which was launched again in December 2025, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) confirmed that Decrease 48 States crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate and excluding the Gulf of America, would drop from a mean of 11.29 million barrels per day in 2025 to a mean of 11.11 million barrels per day in 2026. This manufacturing got here in at 11.03 million barrels per day in 2024, the EIA’s December STEO highlighted.
Complete U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, was projected to drop from a mean of 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to a mean of 13.53 million barrels per day in 2026 in that STEO. Complete U.S. crude oil output, together with lease condensate, averaged 13.23 million barrels per day in 2024, the EIA’s newest STEO on the time of writing confirmed. The EIA’s subsequent STEO is scheduled to be launched on January 13.
Within the Wooden Mackenzie report, the analysts additionally predicted a shale gasoline “renaissance” within the U.S. this yr.
“As LNG FIDs have come thick and quick, there are considerations the Haynesville and Permian aren’t large enough to fulfill subsequent decade demand. Rising information middle energy demand provides weight to the argument,” the analysts mentioned within the report.
“Nimble E&Ps will subsequently revisit the gasoline basins of yesteryear – notably within the Rockies – to unlock useful resource with low entry prices,” they added.
“Exploration will achieve momentum, boosted by leads to the Western Haynesville … Renewed curiosity in deep gasoline in quite a lot of basins can also be doable,” they continued.
The Wooden Mackenzie analysts additionally predicted within the report that gasoline will overtake tight oil deal spend within the U.S. in 2026.
“Most of the largest oil offers have already occurred (e.g. Pioneer, Endeavor, CrownRock, and Marathon),” the analysts famous within the report.
“Focus will shift to consolidation in fragmented basins and gasoline can be prime of the checklist. There are three essential drivers,” they added.
“Firstly, LNG fairness holders and people with massive offtake offers will add upstream gasoline as a Henry Hub worth hedge. Secondly, individuals throughout the worth chain (and past) will see arbitrage between present and future Henry Hub costs and discern a price play,” they continued.
“Thirdly, some governments searching for to rebalance cross-border commerce to mitigate tariffs might even see the gasoline worth chain as a great way to deploy capital in america,” the analysts went on to state.
Rigzone has contacted the American Petroleum Institute (API), the U.S. Division of Vitality (DOE), and the White Home for touch upon the Wooden Mackenzie report. On the time of writing, not one of the above have responded to Rigzone.
Wooden Mackenzie describes itself on its web site as a worldwide chief in analytics, insights, and proprietary information throughout your entire vitality and pure sources panorama. The EIA describes itself because the statistical and analytical company throughout the DOE in its December STEO.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
