Will technical resistance for the October pure fuel contract maintain?
That was the query Eli Rubin, an power analyst at EBW Analytics Group, requested in an EBW report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW staff on Tuesday, which highlighted that the October pure fuel contract closed at $3.090 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) on Monday. That determine marked a 4.2¢, or 1.4 p.c, rise on Friday’s shut, the report outlined.
“The NYMEX front-month briefly examined as excessive as $3.198 yesterday – pushing by way of technical resistance at $3.13 – earlier than falling 10.8¢ into the shut,” Rubin famous within the report.
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“One other technical retest of $3.20 per million British thermal items could also be coming this morning, aided by a modest upturn in CDDs [cooling degree days] and decline in manufacturing readings,” he added.
Nonetheless, Rubin warned within the report that the near-term basic image “hardly warrants intensive optimism”.
“Mid to late September heat is modestly supportive, but in addition partially offset by stalling heating demand,” he added.
“Tropics have been quiet, for now. Storage is rising quicker than at a typical seasonal tempo. Pipeline upkeep seems a key assist of Henry Hub spot pricing,” he continued.
Rubin went on to state within the report that the medium to long run structural outlook is powerful.
“Pure fuel has surpassed a number of technical resistance ranges over the previous two weeks so as to add to momentum,” he stated.
“With storage prone to surpass 3,650 billion cubic toes by October 2nd – and probabilities for a light October – the sturdiness of the latest rally is unsure regardless of a bullish long-term outlook for NYMEX fuel,” he added.
In a separate EBW report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW staff on Monday, Rubin famous that “weekend climate and LNG demand features might align with bullish technicals to pose renewed dangers of breaking greater short-term”.
“Lengthy-term fundamentals seem sturdy. Nonetheless, a rising storage surplus vs. the five-year common paired with dangers of both one other balmy October or tropical demand destruction recommend ongoing warning concerning the sturdiness of the latest transfer greater,” Rubin went on to warn in that report.
A analysis observe despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on Saturday confirmed that J.P. Morgan expects the U.S. Pure Fuel Henry Hub worth to common $3.45 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2025, $3.75 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, and $3.62 per MMBtu total in 2025.
In its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO) on the time of writing, which was launched on August 12, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) projected that the Henry Hub pure fuel spot worth would common $3.25 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2025, $3.87 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, and $3.61 per MMBtu total in 2025.
EBW Analytics Group supplies unbiased skilled evaluation of pure fuel, electrical energy, and crude oil markets, the corporate’s website states. Rubin is an skilled in econometrics, statistics, microeconomics, and energy-related public coverage, the location provides, noting that he’s “instrumental in designing the algorithms utilized in our fashions, and in assessing the potential discrepancies between theoretical and sensible market results of fashions and historic outcomes”.
On its website, J.P. Morgan describes itself as a number one international monetary providers agency with property of $3.9 trillion and operations worldwide. The corporate has “a legacy courting again to 1799”, its website factors out.
The EIA describes itself on its web site because the statistical and analytical company inside the U.S. Division of Vitality. It “collects, analyzes, and disseminates unbiased and neutral power info to advertise sound policymaking, environment friendly markets, and public understanding of power and its interplay with the economic system and the atmosphere”, the EIA’s website states.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
