In its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on November 6, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) revealed that it sees the U.S. Henry Hub spot worth averaging $3.90 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) over the winter season, which it identified runs from November to March.
The EIA additionally projected in its newest STEO that, throughout this time, the U.S. Henry Hub spot worth will peak in January at $4.25 per MMBtu.
In its November STEO, the EIA forecast that the U.S. Henry Hub spot worth will common $3.47 per MMBtu total in 2025 and $4.02 per MMBtu total in 2026. The EIA projected that the U.S. Henry Hub spot worth would are available at $3.42 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.94 per MMBtu in 2026 in its earlier STEO, which was launched in October. Each STEOs confirmed that the 2024 U.S. Henry Hub spot worth averaged $2.19 per MMBtu.
- Advertisement -
The EIA’s newest STEO projected that the commodity will are available at $3.51 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, $3.98 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.38 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2026, $3.97 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.73 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its October STEO, the EIA forecast that the U.S. Henry Hub spot worth would common $3.33 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2025, $3.86 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.31 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.91 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.68 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
NatGas in Winter
In its newest STEO, the EIA famous that “pure fuel costs sometimes rise in the course of the winter as demand for house heating will increase and consumption of pure fuel peaks for the 12 months”.
“This winter, we anticipate rising LNG exports to extend demand for U.S. pure fuel as effectively,” the EIA added.
The EIA highlighted in its November STEO that, this October, U.S. inventories ended the month about the identical as final 12 months and 4 % above the five-year common from 2020 to 2024.
“Regardless of related stock ranges, the October month-to-month Henry Hub worth averaged about $3.20 per MMBtu, up 45 % from the identical month final 12 months. We anticipate costs to common $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026, up 16 % from this 12 months,” the EIA mentioned.
The EIA identified within the STEO that Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana acquired approval from the Federal Vitality Regulatory Fee to introduce pure fuel into Block 17, “bringing the final remaining block on the 2.6 billion cubic toes per day (Bcfpd) terminal into LNG manufacturing sooner than January 2026, which is what we beforehand anticipated”.
“With this capability on-line sooner than anticipated, we raised our forecast for LNG exports in 4Q25 by three % in contrast with final month’s outlook,” the EIA added.
“We anticipate Golden Move LNG Trains 1-2 and Corpus Christi Stage 3 Blocks 4-7 will start transport cargoes in 2026, including 2.1 Bcfpd of LNG export capability by the tip of the 12 months,” it continued.
Demand
The EIA famous in its November STEO that it expects decrease home pure fuel consumption in the course of the 2025-26 winter heating season due to a hotter climate forecast in contrast with final winter.
“We anticipate U.S. pure fuel consumption within the residential and business sectors this winter, which largely stems from house heating, to common 36.5 Bcfpd, 5 % lower than final winter and two % lower than the five-year (2020-2024) common,” the EIA mentioned.
“Temperatures throughout a lot of the nation have been barely above regular into the primary week of November, and forecasts from the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration present the South Central and Southwestern United States can have above common temperatures for a lot of the month,” it added.
“Our forecast contains three % fewer heating diploma days (HDDs) than final winter and two % fewer HDDs than the prior 5 12 months common,” it went on to state.
Different Forecasts
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on November 20, BMI projected that the entrance month Pure Gasoline Henry Hub worth will common $3.50 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.80 per MMBtu in 2026.
In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Customary Chartered group on November 18, Customary Chartered forecast that the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub close by future U.S. pure fuel worth will common $3.550 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.025 per MMBtu in 2026.
Customary Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will are available at $3.800 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, $4.200 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.600 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.800 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.500 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2026.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
