The place will oil demand land this yr? It is determined by who you ask.
The Worldwide Power Company (IEA), for instance, revealed in its newest Oil Market Report (OMR), which was launched this month, that it now tasks world oil demand to rise by 2.2 million barrels per day yr on yr to common 102 million barrels per day. The IEA’s April OMR noticed world oil demand climbing by two million barrels per day to “a report 101.9 million barrels per day”.
“Our forecast for world oil demand development for 2023 has been revised as much as 2.2 million barrels per day on this report, with China’s rebound even stronger than beforehand anticipated,” the IEA famous in its Could OMR.
“The world’s second largest oil consumer after the U.S. will account for practically 60 p.c of world development in 2023. Report demand in China, India, and the Center East initially of the yr greater than offset lackluster industrial exercise and oil use within the OECD,” the IEA added.
“The latter accounts for simply 15 p.c of development this yr, supported by client spending and private mobility,” the IEA continued.
In line with the U.S. Power Data Administration’s (EIA) newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was additionally launched this month, whole world consumption will common 100.99 million barrels per day in 2023. Damaged down quarterly, the EIA’s Could STEO sees this consumption coming in at 100.82 million barrels per day within the second quarter of this yr, 101.58 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 101.67 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s earlier STEO, which was launched in April, projected that whole world demand could be 100.87 million barrels per day in 2023.
“Though demand development for liquid fuels faces draw back dangers by way of the tip of 2024, we count on the seasonal rise in oil consumption and a drop in OPEC crude oil manufacturing to place some upward stress on crude oil costs within the coming months,” the EIA famous in its Could STEO.
“World liquid fuels consumption in our forecast will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, and most anticipated liquid fuels demand development is in non-OECD Asia, led by China and India,” the EIA added.
“We count on this demand development will convey the worldwide oil market into steadiness between the third quarter of 2023 and 1Q24 and push the Brent worth from present ranges again to between $75 per barrel and $80 per barrel,” the EIA continued.
In a report despatched to Rigzone final week, Commonplace Chartered revealed that it sees world oil demand averaging 100.94 million barrels per day this yr. The determine marks a 156,000 barrel per day enhance from final month, the report highlighted.
In its newest report, Commonplace Chartered forecasts that demand will are available at 100.47 million barrels per day within the second quarter of this yr, 101.92 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 101.78 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
“There seems to be a disconnect between what vitality economists are seeing within the knowledge and what speculative merchants are appearing on,” Commonplace Chartered analysts famous within the report.
“We expect this disconnect is the results of the more and more top-down and macro-led nature of oil-market sentiment – we discover that almost all merchants have change into extra pessimistic about demand over the previous three months,” the analysts added.
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