The escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is creating probably the most extreme disruption to international power markets because the Nineteen Seventies, GlobalData stated in a press release despatched to Rigzone on Wednesday.
“The efficient closure of the Strait of Hormuz … pushed oil costs briefly above $110 per barrel inside days, whereas the shock is spreading to delivery, aviation, and commerce, elevating international recession and inflation dangers,” GlobalData said.
“The operational profile of the conflict is widening past direct army targets and is now materially impacting business exercise,” the corporate added.
- Advertisement -
Within the assertion, GlobalData famous that power and maritime logistics are driving the speedy financial shock.
“Probably the most speedy macroeconomic influence is being transmitted by way of power provide and maritime delivery,” the corporate stated.
“The Strait of Hormuz is successfully closed to most site visitors after Iranian threats and tanker assaults, leaving practically 200 vessels stranded,” it added.
“Markets have repriced quickly: oil … jumped from roughly $70 to above $110 per barrel in days, whereas Asian LNG spot costs … greater than doubled,” it continued.
GlobalData went on to warn that increased gasoline prices are feeding immediately into transportation and distribution, noting that U.S. diesel reached a “two-year excessive of $4.04 per gallon, elevating the chance of renewed inflation stress throughout a number of economies”.
Within the assertion, Ramnivas Mundada, Director of Firms and Financial Analysis at GlobalData, highlighted that “company disruption is already extreme throughout a number of sectors”.
“Qatar Power and a number of other Gulf refineries have suspended manufacturing or declared pressure majeure because of direct strikes and logistical blockades,” Mundada added.
“Main delivery teams reminiscent of Maersk have halted Gulf operations, with many vessels rerouting across the Cape of Good Hope and including 10-15 days to journeys alongside sharply increased gasoline burn,” the GlobalData consultant continued.
“Aviation has additionally been hit exhausting, with airways together with Emirates grounding 1000’s of flights because of airspace closures within the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, triggering speedy losses for airways and downstream tourism economies,” Mundada went on to state.
GlobalData additionally said that danger pricing is intensifying the shock.
“Warfare danger insurance coverage premiums for vessels have reportedly surged from round 0.05 p.c to greater than 0.5 p.c of ship worth, rendering some routes uneconomical and additional tightening obtainable delivery capability for each power and container commerce,” GlobalData famous.
“Fairness markets have turned unstable; early within the battle, the Dow Jones fell greater than 400 factors in a single session (March 2, 2026), reflecting investor concern over margin stress, input-cost inflation, and broader geopolitical spillover,” the corporate added.
Within the assertion, Mundada warned that, “if the conflict continues past two to 3 months, the chance of a world recession and extra entrenched inflation pressures rises materially, elevating stagflation danger throughout a number of areas”.
Jaison Davis, Financial Analysis Analyst at GlobalData, warned in a press release despatched to Rigzone on March 9 that oil markets “will stay acutely delicate to developments within the Gulf area”.
“Pricing dynamics are more and more formed by safety situations and the resilience of export routes by way of the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.
“Even with short-term stabilization in delivery, any lingering disruption to manufacturing, infrastructure, or tanker site visitors dangers sustaining elevated volatility, in addition to renewed inflationary pressures for oil importing nations,” he continued.
In a market remark despatched to Rigzone on Wednesday, Aaron Hill, Chief Market Analyst at FP Markets, highlighted that oil costs “have continued to oscillate between positive factors and losses”.
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop famous in a SEB report despatched to Rigzone right this moment that the Brent spot value is buying and selling $22 per barrel above the “impartial value” of $68 per barrel.
“The Brent 1M value is buying and selling at $90 per barrel this morning and $22 per barrel above the ‘impartial value’ in an expression of danger, stress and disruption of oil logistics because the Persian Gulf is closed,” he stated.
“However the market is pricing Brent Y2027 at $71.6 per barrel and a premium of solely $3.6 per barrel above the impartial value – implicitly assuming that the oil market can be regular in 2027 with regular inventories and regular provide,” he added.
The estimated worth of open curiosity in power markets elevated by 11 p.c week on week to $830 billion, in keeping with a report from J.P. Morgan, which was despatched to Rigzone on Tuesday.
“This was primarily pushed by a steep enhance in costs throughout the advanced because of the army escalation within the Center East, which greater than offset web contract‑based mostly outflows of $54 billion,” J.P. Morgan analysts said in that report.
“The estimated worth of open curiosity in pure gasoline markets elevated by $32.8 billion over the week. This was pushed by elevated costs throughout European, Asian and U.S. benchmarks, offsetting web contract-based outflows of $8 billion,” they added.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
