U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 1.8 million barrels from the week ending November 15 to the week ending November 22, in keeping with the U.S. Power Data Administration’s (EIA) newest weekly petroleum standing report.
Crude oil shares, excluding the SPR, stood at 428.4 million barrels on November 22, 430.3 million barrels on November 15, and 449.7 million barrels on November 24, 2023, the EIA confirmed in its report, which was launched on Wednesday and included knowledge for the week ending November 22. The EIA report highlighted that knowledge could not add as much as totals resulting from impartial rounding.
Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gasoline ethanol, kerosene kind jet gasoline, distillate gasoline oil, residual gasoline oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.632 billion barrels on November 22, the report highlighted. This determine was down 0.6 million barrels week on week and up 9.8 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the report confirmed.
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“At 428.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5 p.c under the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months,” the EIA mentioned in its newest weekly petroleum standing report.
“Complete motor gasoline inventories elevated by 3.3 million barrels from final week and are about three p.c under the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months,” it added.
“Each completed gasoline and mixing parts inventories elevated final week. Distillate gasoline inventories elevated by 0.4 million barrels final week and are about 5 p.c under the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months,” it continued.
“Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels from final week and are 9 p.c above the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months,” it went on to state.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day through the week ending November 22, in keeping with the report, which highlighted that this was 67,000 barrels per day greater than the earlier week’s common.
“Refineries operated at 90.5 p.c of their operable capability final week. Gasoline manufacturing elevated final week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day. Distillate gasoline manufacturing elevated final week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day,” the report famous.
The EIA report acknowledged that U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million barrels per day final week and identified that this was a lower of 1.6 million barrels per day from the earlier week.
“Over the previous 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, 5.5 p.c greater than the identical four-week interval final 12 months,” the EIA mentioned.
“Complete motor gasoline imports (together with each completed gasoline and gasoline mixing parts) final week averaged 636,000 barrels per day, and distillate gasoline imports averaged 144,000 barrels per day,” it added.
The EIA famous within the report that whole merchandise equipped during the last four-week interval averaged 20.4 million barrels a day. It mentioned this was up by 1.0 p.c from the identical interval final 12 months.
“Over the previous 4 weeks, motor gasoline product equipped averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, up barely from the identical interval final 12 months,” the EIA added.
“Distillate gasoline product equipped averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the previous 4 weeks, down by 3.4 p.c from the identical interval final 12 months. Jet gasoline product equipped was up 3.3 p.c in contrast with the identical four-week interval final 12 months,” it continued.
In a report despatched to Rigzone on Monday by the Macquarie crew, Macquarie strategists forecast that U.S. crude inventories can be down by round 5.8 million barrels for the week ending November 22.
In a report despatched to Rigzone final Thursday by the Macquarie crew, Macquarie strategists outlined that they noticed “potential for a U.S. crude inventory draw” within the EIA’s November 27 weekly petroleum standing report.
“Looking forward to subsequent week’s launch, we see potential for a U.S. crude inventory draw (-3.3 million barrels), with runs up (+0.4 million barrels per day), nominal implied provide sharply larger (+1.0 million barrels per day), internet imports sharply decrease (-1.2 million barrels per day), and the same improve in SPR stock (+1.4 million barrels) on the week,” the strategists acknowledged in that report.
“We notice potential for volatility in these figures given the unfinished nature of this week’s knowledge. Amongst merchandise, our preliminary expectations level to a attract gasoline (-2.8 million barrels), with distillate down barely (-0.3 million barrels), and a construct in jet (+0.6 million barrels),” they added.
In a report despatched to Rigzone on Thursday, Ole R. Hvalbye, a Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), outlined that the EIA stock knowledge “highlights the tight provide circumstances available in the market”.
“Industrial crude inventories (excluding SPR) declined by 1.8 million barrels week on week, bringing whole shares to 428.4 million barrels,” he identified.
“Whereas smaller than the 5.9 million barrel draw estimated by the API [American Petroleum Institute], inventories stay roughly 5 p.c under the five-year common for this time of 12 months,” he added.
Hvalbye famous within the report that refined product inventories introduced a blended image.
“Gasoline inventories elevated by 3.3 million barrels (in comparison with API’s estimate of 1.8 million barrels), but they continue to be three p.c under the five-year common. Equally, distillate inventories (diesel) rose by 0.4 million barrels however are nonetheless 5 p.c under the five-year norm, contrasting with API’s estimate of a 2.5 million barrel construct,” he added.
“The modest crude draw continues to sign tight market circumstances, significantly when mixed with general low stock ranges throughout petroleum merchandise,” he continued.
Hvalbye acknowledged within the report that refinery operations additionally supplied vital insights.
“U.S. refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day, with amenities working at 90.5 p.c capability. Crude imports declined sharply, averaging 6.1 million barrels per day, down 1.6 million barrels in comparison with the earlier week,” he highlighted.
“Over the previous 4 weeks, whole product provide – a key indicator of demand – averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, representing a one p.c 12 months on 12 months improve. Gasoline demand remained regular, whereas distillate gasoline demand declined by 3.4 p.c, and jet gasoline demand rose by 3.3 p.c,” he added.
Hvalbye acknowledged within the report that, “regardless of this week’s bearish value motion, the decline in U.S. crude inventories, albeit smaller than anticipated, indicators that market fundamentals stay considerably tight and [are] capping the draw back to costs”.
“Moreover, the drop in whole industrial petroleum inventories – down by 1.8 million barrels final week – additional underscores this. U.S. inventories, alongside ongoing geopolitical developments and OPEC+ choices, will proceed to dominate the crude oil narrative within the coming weeks,” Hvalbye added.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on December 4 and can embrace knowledge for the week ending November 29.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
