The U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) revealed its newest U.S. crude oil manufacturing forecast in its July brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched earlier this month.
In its July STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, will common 13.37 million barrels per day throughout 2025 and 2026. The STEO highlighted that this output got here in at 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA forecast in its July STEO that U.S. crude oil manufacturing will common 13.36 million barrels per day within the third quarter of this yr, 13.43 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 13.42 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 13.48 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.33 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.26 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
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In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that Decrease 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, will present 11.14 million barrels per day of the entire 2025 U.S. crude oil output determine and 11.09 million barrels per day of the entire 2026 determine. The EIA expects the Federal Gulf of America to offer 1.80 million barrels per day of this yr’s whole and 1.84 million barrels per day of subsequent yr’s whole, and Alaska to offer 0.43 million barrels per day of the 2025 whole and 0.44 million barrels per day of the 2026 whole, the STEO confirmed.
In its earlier STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, would are available at 13.42 million barrels per day this yr and 13.37 million barrels per day subsequent yr.
The EIA projected in its June STEO that U.S. crude oil manufacturing would common 13.52 million barrels per day within the second quarter of 2025, 13.41 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 13.43 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 13.36 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 13.45 million barrels per day within the second quarter, and 13.34 million barrels per day throughout the third and fourth quarters of subsequent yr.
In its earlier STEO, the EIA forecast that Decrease 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, would offer 11.17 million barrels per day of the entire 2025 U.S. crude oil output determine and 11.09 million barrels per day of the entire 2026 determine. The EIA anticipated the Federal Gulf of America to offer 1.81 million barrels per day of this yr’s whole and 1.85 million barrels per day of subsequent yr’s whole, and Alaska to offer 0.43 million barrels per day of the 2025 whole and 0.44 million barrels per day of the 2026 whole, that STEO confirmed.
An information web page on the EIA web site displaying month-to-month U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil, which was final up to date on June 30 and which incorporates knowledge from January 1920 to April 2025, confirmed that month-to-month U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra on 20 events.
5 of these have been in 2023, 11 have been in 2024, and 4 have been in 2025, based on the info web page, which confirmed that the best month-to-month U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil determine got here in April 2025, at 13.468 million barrels per day.
An information web page on the EIA web site displaying annual U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil, which was additionally final up to date on June 30 and which incorporates knowledge from 1859 to 2024, confirmed that annual U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil averaged 13.208 million barrels per day in 2024. Previous to this, annual U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil had by no means averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra, the info revealed. The closest it got here to an annual common of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.935 million barrels per day, the info confirmed.
“We forecast U.S. crude oil manufacturing will usually decline from nearly 13.5 million barrels per day in April 2025 to 13.3 million barrels per day by the top of 2026, virtually unchanged from our June STEO,” the EIA stated in its July STEO.
“The drop in U.S. crude oil manufacturing displays our expectation that the WTI crude oil spot worth will fall by 2026, ending the yr at $53 per barrel, a decline of about 22 % from the June 2025 worth. Declining costs imply U.S. oil producers will drill and full fewer wells,” it added.
U.S. producers have slowed drilling and completion exercise this yr, the EIA famous in its newest STEO.
“In 1H25, effectively completions within the oil-producing areas of the Decrease 48 states totaled 5,164 wells. This quantity excludes Alaska and the Gulf of America, which don’t produce tight oil and are topic to completely different funding and manufacturing cycles,” it added.
“It additionally excludes Haynesville and Appalachia, which primarily produce pure gasoline. This yr had the fewest completions within the first six months of any yr since 2021,” it stated.
Final yr, greater oil output per effectively meant that U.S. crude oil manufacturing grew regardless of comparatively low effectively completions, the EIA said in its July STEO.
“This yr, productiveness progress has been blended; crude oil manufacturing from newly accomplished wells is rising extra slowly or declining within the main oil-producing areas,” it famous.
“We assess the muted productiveness progress can be inadequate to offset the low drilling and completion exercise noticed within the falling rig rely and variety of wells accomplished,” the EIA added.
“With falling crude oil costs in our forecast, we count on current downward developments in rig counts and effectively completions to proceed,” it stated.
“We estimate that U.S. producers must full greater than 5,400 wells in 2H25 to match the variety of wells accomplished in all of 2024. About the identical variety of wells (5,500) have been accomplished in 2H23 when oil costs have been a lot greater,” the EIA went on to notice.
The EIA states on its web site that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates unbiased and neutral vitality data to advertise sound policymaking, environment friendly markets, and public understanding of vitality and its interplay with the economic system and the surroundings.
The group describes itself on its web site because the statistical and analytical company inside the U.S. Division of Vitality (DOE) however states in its STEOs that the views in these stories don’t symbolize these of the DOE or another federal businesses.
It provides on its web site that it’s “the nation’s premier supply of vitality data, and, by regulation, its knowledge, analyses, and forecasts are unbiased of approval by another officer or worker of the U.S. authorities”.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
