The U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) revealed its newest Henry Hub pure gasoline spot value forecasts in its January brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was printed on January 14 and accomplished its forecast on January 9.
In line with its January STEO, the EIA expects the Henry Hub spot value to common $3.14 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) in 2025 and $3.97 per MMBtu in 2026. The EIA’s earlier STEO, which was launched in December, projected that the Henry Hub spot value would common $2.95 per MMBtu in 2025. That STEO didn’t embody a Henry Hub spot value forecast for 2026.
The EIA’s newest STEO sees the Henry Hub spot value averaging $3.21 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $2.59 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.18 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.59 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.03 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.63 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.06 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.17 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr.
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In its December STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value would common $2.95 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $2.44 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.02 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.40 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
Each STEOs put the 2024 Henry Hub spot value common at $2.19 per MMBtu.
“In our forecast, the annual U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot value averages $3.10 per MMBtu in 2025 and rises to nearly $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026,” the EIA famous in its January STEO.
“Our expectation that pure gasoline inventories stay at or under earlier five-year averages in the course of the forecast interval places upward strain on pure gasoline costs,” it added.
“The month-to-month Henry Hub spot value in our forecast stays between $2.50 per MMBtu and $3.90 per MMBtu in 2025 and between $3.50 per MMBtu and $4.40 per MMBtu in 2026 as LNG exports enhance,” it continued.
“Though we count on the Henry Hub value to rise from their all-time lows in 2024 over the forecast interval, the potential exists for costs to extend by lower than we forecast, notably if the ramp-up of latest LNG manufacturing is slower than anticipated or the start-up of the Golden Move facility is delayed,” the EIA went on to state.
In its January STEO, the EIA additionally warned that “climate continues to current a big danger” to its Henry Hub value forecast, “notably within the winter months”.
The EIA famous in its newest STEO that, over the subsequent two years, it expects that pure gasoline demand within the U.S. will typically develop by greater than pure gasoline provide.
“In 2025, we forecast provide of pure gasoline, together with each manufacturing and imports, will rise by 1.4 billion cubic toes per day in 2025, whereas demand for pure gasoline, together with home consumption and exports, rises by 3.2 billion cubic toes per day,” it added.
“Exports are the main supply of pure gasoline demand development in our forecast,” it continued.
In its December STEO, the EIA famous that U.S. pure gasoline costs fell for the second month in a row in November “as gentle autumn climate persevered within the first half of the month and the Decrease 48 states entered the winter heating season with six p.c extra working pure gasoline in storage than the earlier five-year (2019–2023) common”.
The EIA identified in that STEO that the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub pure gasoline spot value averaged simply over $2 per MMBtu in November. It highlighted that this was “down barely from $2.20 per MMBtu in October”.
“With chilly late November and early December climate over a lot of the jap a part of the nation, spot costs rose,” the EIA mentioned in that STEO.
“We forecast the Henry Hub spot value will common $3.00 per MMBtu for the remainder of the winter heating season, which ends in March, and just below $3.00 per MMBtu in 2025,” it added in its December STEO.
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