The U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) has revealed its newest common Henry Hub pure fuel spot value forecasts in its August brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on August 12.
In response to that STEO, the EIA sees the Henry Hub spot value averaging $3.61 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.34 per MMBtu in 2026. The EIA’s earlier July STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot value would common $3.67 per MMBtu this 12 months and $4.41 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months. Each STEOs highlighted that the 2024 Henry Hub spot value averaged $2.19 per MMBtu.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO confirmed that the EIA is forecasting that the Henry Hub spot value will are available in at $3.25 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2025, $3.87 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.35 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.69 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.29 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $5.01 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2026.
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In its earlier July STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub pure fuel spot value would common $3.37 per MMBtu within the third quarter of this 12 months, $3.99 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.46 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.76 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.35 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $5.06 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
Each STEOs identified that the primary quarter 2025 Henry Hub spot value averaged $4.15 per MMBtu and that the second quarter Henry Hub spot value got here in at $3.19 per MMBtu.
“U.S. pure fuel costs have been decrease this 12 months than we forecasted in earlier STEOs earlier this 12 months, with excessive volumes of pure fuel put into storage up to now this injection season (April-October),” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“Though we anticipate pure fuel costs to be usually decrease than we have been forecasting just a few months in the past, we nonetheless anticipate costs to rise from present ranges, pushed by tighter market balances,” it added.
In its August STEO, the EIA famous that the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot value averaged virtually $3.20 per MMBtu from April by way of July, which it identified was $0.80 per MMBtu under the April STEO forecast.
“In our April STEO, we anticipated pure fuel inventories in working fuel storage to be three % lower than the five-year common on the finish of the injection season on October 31,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“We now anticipate it to be about two % greater than the five-year common. Our greater finish of season storage forecast is essentially the results of extra pure fuel manufacturing and fewer liquefied pure fuel (LNG) exports than we had anticipated in April, with upkeep at a number of terminals extending over the second quarter,” it added.
“As a result of we anticipate extra pure fuel might be in storage within the coming months, we forecast costs might be decrease. The Henry Hub value on this STEO averages round $3.60 per MMBtu in 2H25 and $4.30 in 2026, which is 21 % and 6 % decrease than we forecast in April, respectively,” it continued.
“Nonetheless, month-to-month ahead value curves proceed to mirror expectations of regularly growing costs by way of the tip of 2026. April has the bottom month-to-month common value in our 2026 forecast at round $3.60 per MMBtu. We anticipate costs will rise from there, reaching greater than $5.40 per MMBtu in December,” it said.
The EIA went on to notice in its August STEO that, though its storage forecast is greater than it was in April, it nonetheless expects pure fuel inventories to fall nearer to the five-year common within the coming months, “placing upward stress on costs”.
“After rising by multiple billion cubic toes per day (Bcf/d) from 1Q25 to 2Q25, dry pure fuel manufacturing will fall by an identical quantity over the following 12 months,” the EIA stated.
“On the similar time, we anticipate that LNG exports will develop round two Bcf/d, additional tightening supply-demand balances and contributing to greater costs later within the forecast interval,” it added.
Rising pure fuel manufacturing in latest months has added to greater than anticipated stock ranges, the EIA highlighted in its August STEO.
“We anticipate marketed pure fuel manufacturing to develop by three % over 2024 volumes, supported by progress of two Bcf/d within the Permian area and 0.9 Bcf/d in every of the Haynesville and Appalachia areas in 2025,” it famous.
“This progress has been sustained partially by the deployment of drilling rigs to pure gas-intensive shale performs. Baker Hughes reported on August 8 that 19 extra energetic rigs have been targeted on drilling for pure fuel than there have been initially of April, an 18 % enhance. The Haynesville area led the rise in pure gas-directed rig deployment,” it added.
In its newest STEO, the EIA stated it expects marketed pure fuel manufacturing might be usually unchanged subsequent 12 months, “regardless that we anticipate falling oil costs will cut back manufacturing of related pure fuel, notably within the Permian Basin”.
“Nonetheless, manufacturing declines might be muted as producers strategically place themselves to satisfy rising demand from a number of LNG initiatives which might be set to enter service in late 2025 and 2026,” it added.
“We forecast marketed annual pure fuel manufacturing to stay flat in 2026 in contrast with 2025, when elevated non-associated fuel manufacturing from the Haynesville area (0.3 Bcf/d) and Appalachia (0.7 Bcf/d) offset declines Eagle Ford and comparatively flat manufacturing within the Permian,” the EIA stated.
“Within the Haynesville area, we anticipate manufacturing to stay close to present ranges by way of early 2026, earlier than rising within the second quarter in response to LNG-related demand. The beginning of the Louisiana Power Gateway pipeline, which is deliberate to enter service throughout this era, will help rising Haynesville output by bettering takeaway capability,” it went on to state.
“Further export capability from the brand new Golden Go facility and Plaquemines LNG Section 2 are additionally set to return on-line over the following two years,” the EIA identified in its August STEO.
A report despatched to Rigzone by the Normal Chartered group on August 12 confirmed that the corporate anticipated the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub U.S. pure fuel close by future value to common $3.35 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.30 per MMBtu in 2026.
A J.P. Morgan analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on August 11 confirmed that J.P. Morgan anticipated the U.S. pure fuel Henry Hub value to common $3.62 per MMBtu this 12 months and $3.55 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
