In its February quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on Tuesday, the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) revealed its newest Brent spot value forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
In keeping with the STEO, the EIA sees the Brent spot value averaging $74.50 per barrel this 12 months and $66.46 per barrel subsequent 12 months. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in January, the EIA projected that the Brent spot value would common $74.31 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026.
The EIA’s newest STEO sees the commodity coming in at $77.13 per barrel within the first quarter of this 12 months, $75 per barrel within the second quarter, $74 per barrel within the third quarter, and $72 per barrel within the fourth quarter. The group’s January STEO noticed the Brent spot value averaging $76.34 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $75 per barrel within the second quarter, $74 per barrel within the third quarter, and $72 per barrel within the fourth quarter.
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The EIA famous in its February STEO that the spot value of Brent crude oil averaged $79 per barrel in January. It highlighted that this was $5 per barrel greater than in December.
“Crude oil costs elevated instantly following the January 10 announcement of a brand new spherical of sanctions on Russia’s oil shipments,” the EIA mentioned in its newest STEO.
“Costs regularly fell over the course of the month as considerations round weak world oil demand progress and oversupply regained focus from market contributors. The Brent spot value started February round $76 per barrel, about the identical as at first of January,” it added.
“On February 1, President Donald J. Trump signed an Government Order saying the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. Subsequently, the implementation of tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada had been delayed by 30 days, so the results of these two insurance policies will not be mirrored on this outlook,” the EIA went on to state.
The group mentioned in its STEO that “U.S. tariffs positioned on imports from China by that Government Order, in addition to China’s retaliatory tariffs positioned on choose imports from the USA”, are integrated in its outlook “and stay by all the forecast interval”.
“Though the longer term imposition of tariffs might have an effect on oil commerce routes, we don’t presently anticipate the tariffs put ahead within the February 1 government order would considerably have an effect on world oil provide,” the EIA famous within the February STEO.
“Nonetheless, the potential for future tariffs and the brand new sanctions on Russia are sources of uncertainty for oil costs going ahead,” it added.
“Our evaluation is that though the most recent sanctions on Russia will barely cut back Russia’s oil manufacturing in contrast with what we forecast final month, they may largely end in shifts in world oil commerce flows, which we don’t forecast in our outlook,” it continued.
“The sanctions don’t markedly influence world oil balances, or our forecast of Brent crude oil costs in contrast with final month’s STEO. We nonetheless anticipate that world oil inventories will fall by 0.5 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025 due to OPEC+ manufacturing cuts, which the group not too long ago reaffirmed,” it went on to state.
The EIA famous in its newest STEO, nevertheless, that it expects world oil inventories “will start rising as soon as OPEC+ begins elevating manufacturing, beginning in April 2025”.
“These manufacturing will increase mixed with expectations of comparatively weak world oil demand progress will result in a 0.9 million barrel per day improve in world oil inventories within the second half of 2025 and a 1.0 million barrel per day improve in 2026,” it mentioned.
“We count on that at the moment falling world oil inventories and elevated uncertainty will preserve crude oil costs at a median of $77 per barrel by 1Q25, earlier than rising inventories once more start placing downward stress on costs by the rest of our forecast,” it added.
“In consequence, we forecast the Brent crude oil value will fall to $72 per barrel in December 2025, averaging $74 per barrel in 2025 earlier than falling to a median of $66 per barrel in 2026,” it continued.
The EIA warned in its February STEO that “important uncertainty stays” in its oil value forecast.
“The influence of not too long ago introduced sanctions and tariffs on Russia and China have heightened oil value volatility within the quick time period whereas markets and commerce patterns modify,” it identified.
“As well as, the eventual decision of the delayed tariffs on oil volumes from Canada and Mexico in addition to the potential for sanctions on oil volumes from Iran stays, which have the potential to affect oil costs,” it added.
“Lastly, our beforehand famous sources of uncertainty all stay and are more likely to have lasting impacts on oil costs all through the STEO forecast interval ending subsequent 12 months,” it went on to state.
A analysis observe despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on Friday confirmed that J.P. Morgan expects the Brent crude value to common $73 per barrel in 2025 and $61 per barrel in 2026.
The corporate sees the commodity averaging $74 per barrel within the first quarter of this 12 months, $77 per barrel within the second quarter, $73 per barrel within the third quarter, and $69 per barrel within the fourth quarter, the observe confirmed.
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on February 5, BMI projected that the Brent value will common $76 per barrel in 2025 and $75 per barrel throughout 2026, 2027, 2028, and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included in that report forecast that the Brent value will are available in at $73 per barrel this 12 months, $71 per barrel subsequent 12 months, $72 per barrel throughout 2027 and 2028, and $67 per barrel in 2029. BMI is a contributor to the Bloomberg consensus, BMI highlighted in that report.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
