In its newest gasoline replace, which was launched this week, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) confirmed a declining worth development for gasoline.
In accordance with the replace, the U.S. common gasoline worth averaged $3.069 per gallon on November 4, $3.052 per gallon on November 11, and $3.046 per gallon on November 18.
Of the 5 Petroleum Administration for Protection District (PADD) areas highlighted within the EIA’s newest gasoline replace, the West Coast was proven to have the best common gasoline worth as of November 18, at $3.875 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was proven to have the bottom common gasoline worth as of November 18, at $2.629 per gallon.
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A glossary part of the EIA web site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into 5 districts, with PADD 1 additional cut up into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and seven embody U.S. territories, the positioning provides.
In accordance with the AAA Gas Costs web site, the typical worth of standard gasoline within the U.S. is $3.063 per gallon at the moment. Yesterday’s common was $3.066 per gallon, the week in the past common was $3.084 per gallon, the month in the past common was $3.175 per gallon, and the yr in the past common was $3.295 per gallon, the positioning confirmed.
GasBuddy’s stay ticking common for normal gasoline within the U.S. was $3.047 per gallon as of 10.55am EST on November 21. The determine was 0.7 cents decrease than yesterday’s common, 2.6 cents decrease than final week’s common, 10.2 cents decrease than final month’s common, and 23.6 cents decrease than final yr’s common, the positioning highlighted.
Future Worth Projections
In its newest brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched not too long ago, the EIA projected that the U.S. common gasoline worth will common $3.32 per gallon in 2024 and $3.17 per gallon in 2025.
In its earlier October STEO, the EIA forecast that the common gasoline worth would common $3.33 per gallon this yr and $3.22 per gallon in 2025. The EIA’s September STEO projected that the common gasoline worth would common $3.33 per gallon this yr and $3.29 per gallon in 2025.
All three STEOs put the typical 2023 common gasoline worth at $3.52 per gallon.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO confirmed that the EIA expects the common gasoline worth to common $3.11 per gallon throughout the fourth quarter of this yr and first quarter of 2025, $3.28 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.26 per gallon within the third quarter, and $3.03 per gallon within the fourth quarter.
In its earlier STEO, the EIA forecast that the common gasoline worth would are available in at $3.15 per gallon within the fourth quarter of this yr, $3.11 per gallon within the first quarter of 2025, $3.33 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.35 per gallon within the third quarter, and $3.07 per gallon within the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s September STEO projected that the common gasoline worth would common $3.12 per gallon within the fourth quarter of this yr, $3.11 per gallon within the first quarter of 2025, $3.39 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.43 per gallon within the third quarter, and $3.21 per gallon within the fourth quarter of 2025.
Gasoline Demand, Manufacturing
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group earlier this month, BMI, a unit of Fitch Options, flagged a “weakening gasoline demand forecast for 2025, particularly within the U.S. and European developed markets”.
“For the U.S., we now count on gasoline demand to say no by 0.5 % yr on yr in 2025 after a… 0.6 % yr on yr decline anticipated for 2024,” BMI added.
“This bearish view is underpinned by the anticipated financial slowdown with U.S. actual GDP progress set to decelerate from 2.7 % yr on yr in 2024 to 1.9 % yr on yr in 2025,” it continued.
“We count on personal consumption to sluggish whereas funding will stay sluggish earlier than responding to simpler financial coverage by mid-2025,” it went on to state.
provide, BMI famous within the report that it expects international gasoline output to develop by 1.0 %, “additional including downward strain on the crack spreads”.
“Mixture international gasoline manufacturing is ready to extend to 25.0 million barrels per day in 2025 from 24.8 million barrels per day in 2024,” BMI stated within the report.
“China, India, the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Mexico are set to see the most important uptick in gasoline manufacturing,” it added.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
