The U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) lower its Henry Hub spot worth forecast for 2024 and 2025 in its newest brief time period vitality outlook, which was launched lately.
In its September STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot worth will common $2.19 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) this yr and $3.14 per MMBtu in 2025. In its earlier August STEO, the EIA forecast that the commodity would common $2.30 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.27 per MMBtu in 2025.
The EIA’s September STEO revealed that the group sees the Henry Hub spot worth averaging $2.02 per MMBtu within the third quarter of this yr, $2.52 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $3.01 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $2.90 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.28 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.36 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
- Advertisement -
In its August STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot worth would common $2.20 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2024, $2.78 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $3.23 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent yr, $3.04 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2025, $3.38 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2025, and $3.43 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s newest STEO put the second quarter 2024 and total 2023 Henry Hub spot worth averages at $2.08 per MMBtu and $2.54 per MMBtu, respectively.
“We forecast that pure gasoline costs will stay comparatively flat within the upcoming shoulder season of September and October earlier than usually rising in 2025,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub pure gasoline worth averaged $1.98 per MMBtu in August, down 4 % from July,” it added.
“September Henry Hub costs in our forecast stay near costs in August, as we enter the shoulder season when much less pure gasoline is consumed total and earlier than demand for house heating will increase in america,” it continued.
Within the STEO, the EIA famous that it expects U.S. pure gasoline consumption to say no by eight % to 79 billion cubic ft per day (Bcfpd) between August and September.
“With comparatively flat manufacturing and lowered pure gasoline consumption due to a seasonal lower in demand from the electrical energy sector, we count on the Henry Hub pure gasoline spot worth to remain near $2.00 per MMBtu the following couple of months and stay under $3.00 per MMBtu by the top of 2024,” the EIA stated within the STEO.
“In 2025, we count on costs to rise as liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) exports enhance whereas home consumption and manufacturing stay comparatively flat for a lot of the yr,” it added.
The EIA forecast within the STEO that U.S. consumption of pure gasoline will common “about 90 Bcfpd in 2025”, which it highlighted “is about the identical as our forecast for whole consumption in 2024”.
“Nonetheless, we count on that LNG exports will rise by greater than two Bcfpd (17 %) subsequent yr as export capability expands,” it added.
The EIA revealed within the STEO that it expects U.S. dry pure gasoline manufacturing will “stay comparatively unchanged over the following a number of months as some producers, notably within the Marcellus and Haynesville areas, proceed to curtail manufacturing till costs rise”.
“U.S. dry pure gasoline manufacturing averages 104 Bcfpd in 4Q24 in our forecast and 105 Bcfpd throughout 2025,” it added.
“A lot of the progress in pure gasoline manufacturing is available in late 2025 after we count on new LNG export services to ramp up manufacturing,” it continued.
In its September STEO, the EIA famous that it expects much less pure gasoline storage injections than the five-year common (2019–2023) by the rest of this yr’s injection season (April–October).
“However, we count on inventories will finish the injection season on October 31 with 5 % extra pure gasoline than the five-year common, down from a surplus of 11 % on the finish of August,” it added.
“Our anticipation of a narrowing surplus to the five-year common helps our expectation of rising costs within the coming months,” the EIA continued.
The group warned within the STEO, nevertheless, that, if U.S. pure gasoline manufacturing is lower than the EIA’s forecast and consumption will increase, resulting in inventories ending the injection season nearer to the five-year common, pure gasoline costs might be larger than forecast.
“On the identical time, with peak hurricane season approaching, if LNG exports have been disrupted due to a hurricane on the Gulf Coast, leading to extra U.S. inventories than anticipated, pure gasoline costs might be decrease than in our forecast,” the EIA acknowledged.
In its newest weekly pure gasoline storage report, which was launched on September 12 and confirmed information for the week ending September 6, the EIA revealed that, in response to its estimates, working gasoline in storage was 3,387 Bcf as of September 6.
“This represents a web enhance of 40 Bcf from the earlier week,” the EIA acknowledged in that report.
“Shares have been 198 Bcf larger than final yr at the moment and 296 Bcf above the five-year common of three,091 Bcf. At 3,387 Bcf, whole working gasoline is throughout the five-year historic vary,” it added.
A Rystad Vitality gasoline and LNG market replace from Rystad Senior Analyst Masanori Odaka, which was despatched to Rigzone on September 11, famous that “the front-month Henry Hub gasoline worth… was 1.4 % decrease week on week to $2.17 per MMBtu on 9 September, with feedgas ranges to LNG export initiatives at a excessive degree, averaging at 13.4 Bcfpd for two to 9 September, in comparison with 12.98 Bcfpd for a similar interval in 2023”.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
