The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil manufacturing forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on October 7.
In keeping with this STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, averaging 13.53 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.51 million barrels per day in 2026. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in September, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, would common 13.44 million barrels per day this yr and 13.30 million barrels per day subsequent yr.
The EIA’s October STEO sees U.S. crude oil output coming in at 13.66 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of 2025, 13.62 million barrels per day within the first quarter of subsequent yr, 13.53 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.40 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.48 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
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In its September STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil manufacturing would common 13.51 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of this yr, 13.45 million barrels per day within the first quarter of subsequent yr, 13.39 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.20 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.17 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s newest STEO projected that the Decrease 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will contribute 11.22 million barrels per day of the entire projected determine for 2025 and 11.10 million barrels per day of the entire projected determine for 2026. The Federal Gulf of America is predicted to contribute 1.89 million barrels per day to this yr’s complete projected determine and 1.96 million barrels per day to subsequent yr’s complete projected determine, the STEO confirmed. Alaska is projected to contribute 0.42 million barrels per day to this yr’s anticipated complete determine and 0.45 million barrels per day to subsequent yr’s anticipated complete determine, the STEO revealed.
“In July, U.S. crude oil manufacturing averaged greater than 13.6 million barrels per day, probably the most in any month on document,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“Manufacturing in July was greater than we beforehand estimated, which raised the start line for our U.S. crude oil manufacturing forecast. As well as, we raised our forecast for crude oil manufacturing within the Gulf of America as some initiatives are ramping up manufacturing quicker than we had anticipated,” the EIA added.
“Though we anticipate crude oil manufacturing will decline from its current peak as oil costs fall, we now forecast U.S. crude oil manufacturing will common 13.5 million barrels per day in each 2025 and 2026. Our 2026 forecast elevated by 0.2 million barrels per day from final month,” the EIA continued.
An information web page on the EIA web site displaying month-to-month U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil, which was final up to date on September 30 and which incorporates knowledge from January 1920 to July 2025, confirmed that month-to-month U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil averaged 13.642 million barrels per day in July.
This determine is the very best within the knowledge set, with the second highest determine coming in June, at 13.533 million barrels per day, and the third highest determine coming in October 2024, at 13.530 million barrels per day.
Month-to-month U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra on 22 events, based on the information web page. 4 of those have been seen in 2023, 11 got here in 2024, and 7 have been in 2025, the information web page highlighted.
An information web page on the EIA web site displaying annual U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil, which was additionally final up to date on September 30 and which incorporates knowledge from 1859 to 2024, confirmed that annual U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil averaged 13.235 million barrels per day in 2024. Previous to this, annual U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil had by no means averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra, the information revealed. The closest it got here to an annual common of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.943 million barrels per day, the information confirmed.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
