The U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) raised its Henry Hub pure fuel spot value forecast for 2024 and 2025 in its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched just lately.
In line with its December STEO, the EIA sees the Henry Hub spot value averaging $2.19 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) in 2024 and $2.95 per MMBtu in 2025. The EIA’s earlier November STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot value would common $2.17 per MMBtu in 2024 and $2.90 per MMBtu in 2025.
The EIA’s newest STEO confirmed that the EIA expects the Henry Hub spot value to come back in at $2.45 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of this yr, $2.95 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent yr, $2.44 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2025, $3.02 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.40 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
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In its November STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value would common $2.37 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $2.84 per MMBtu within the first quarter, $2.45 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.01 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.29 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
Each STEOs put the 2023 Henry Hub pure fuel spot value at $2.54 per MMBtu.
The EIA highlighted in its December STEO that U.S. pure fuel costs “fell for the second month in a row in November as delicate autumn climate persevered within the first half of the month and the Decrease 48 states entered the winter heating season with six % extra working pure fuel in storage than the earlier five-year (2019–2023) common”.
“The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub pure fuel spot value averaged simply over $2.00 per MMBtu in November, down barely from $2.20 per MMBtu in October,” it added.
“With chilly late November and early December climate over a lot of the jap a part of the nation, spot costs rose. We forecast the Henry Hub spot value will common $3.00 per MMBtu for the remainder of the winter heating season, which ends in March, and just below $3.00 per MMBtu in 2025,” it went on to state.
In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that pure fuel inventories will stay above the five-year common all winter.
“Due to comparatively flat pure fuel manufacturing in our forecast, and since present forecasts by the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration present a colder than regular December, we anticipate pure fuel inventories to fall by about 590 billion cubic toes (Bcf) in December, 34 % greater than the five-year common withdrawal for the month,” the group stated within the STEO.
“Nevertheless, our forecast assumes climate can be milder than regular in 1Q25, which might imply much less pure fuel withdrawn from stock than is typical for the primary quarter. We anticipate pure fuel inventories to be two % above the five-year (2020–2024) common by the tip of March 2025 at 1,920 Bcf,” it added.
The EIA highlighted in its December STEO that, in its forecast, U.S. dry pure fuel manufacturing averages 103 billion cubic toes per day (Bcfpd) in 1Q25, which the EIA stated is flat in contrast with 4Q24.
“For the yr, we forecast pure fuel manufacturing will improve one % in 2025 attributable to elevated manufacturing within the Permian and Eagle Ford areas, the place pure fuel manufacturing is primarily related to oil manufacturing,” the EIA stated within the STEO.
“We additionally anticipate extra manufacturing within the Haynesville area due to increased costs and elevated demand from close by new liquefied pure fuel (LNG) export tasks that can be ramping up manufacturing,” it added.
The EIA additionally famous in its December STEO that U.S. LNG exports in its forecast “are averaging almost 12 Bcfpd in 2024, primarily flat in contrast with final yr”.
“We anticipate LNG exports to extend by 15 % in 2025, reaching virtually 14 Bcfpd, as export capability expands with Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3, that are each anticipated to begin LNG exports by the tip of December,” it added.
“On November 21, Plaquemines LNG acquired approval from the Federal Vitality Regulatory Fee (FERC) to introduce hazardous fluids to liquefaction Block 1 (first two trains), and Corpus Christi Stage 3 acquired an analogous approval from FERC on November 27,” the EIA highlighted, noting that these approvals “are a key step for these services to start liquefying pure fuel for export”.
A analysis observe despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on Friday confirmed that J.P. Morgan expects the U.S. Pure Gasoline Henry Hub value to common $2.37 per MMBtu in 2024, $3.50 per MMBtu in 2025, and $3.94 per MMBtu in 2026.
J.P. Morgan sees the commodity averaging $2.75 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2024, $3.55 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $3.10 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2025, $3.55 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.80 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, the report highlighted. The corporate expects the U.S. Pure Gasoline Henry Hub value to come back in at $4.00 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.50 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.00 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.25 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, in keeping with the report.
A BMI report despatched to Rigzone on December 6 by the Fitch Group confirmed that BMI expects the entrance month pure fuel Henry Hub value to common $2.40 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.40 per MMBtu in 2025.
A report despatched to Rigzone late Tuesday by Commonplace Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell confirmed that the financial institution expects the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub close by future U.S. pure fuel value to common $3.25 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.30 per MMBtu in 2026, and $2.80 per MMBtu in 2027.
The Commonplace Chartered Financial institution report revealed that the financial institution sees the commodity averaging $3.20 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent yr, $3.50 per MMBtu throughout the second and third quarters, $2.80 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, and $3.20 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
