In its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on October 7, the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) lowered its Henry Hub pure gasoline spot value forecast for each 2025 and 2026.
Based on this STEO, the EIA now sees the commodity coming in at $3.42 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) in 2025 and $3.94 per MMBtu in 2026. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in September, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub pure gasoline spot value would common $3.52 per MMBtu this 12 months and $4.28 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months.
The EIA’s newest STEO sees the commodity averaging $3.33 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2025, $3.86 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.31 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.91 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.68 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2026.
- Advertisement -
In its September STEO, the EIA forecast that the Henry Hub pure gasoline spot value would common $3.04 per MMBtu within the third quarter of this 12 months, $3.72 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.25 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.64 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.26 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.99 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s October STEO highlighted that the commodity got here in at $3.03 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2025. Each the October and the September STEOs confirmed that the Henry Hub pure gasoline spot value averaged $4.15 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this 12 months, $3.19 per MMBtu within the second quarter, and $2.19 per MMBtu general in 2024.
In its October STEO, the EIA stated it expects the Henry Hub spot value “to extend from round $3.00 per MMBtu in September to $4.10 per MMBtu by January 2026, virtually 50 cents per MMBtu decrease than we forecast final month”.
“We anticipate the Henry Hub value to common about $3.90 per MMBtu general in 2026,” it added.
“Our cheaper price expectation displays our forecast that pure gasoline manufacturing will likely be greater than we forecast final month, resulting in extra pure gasoline in stock by way of the winter than beforehand anticipated,” the EIA continued.
“Along with greater pure gasoline manufacturing within the forecast, since late August, above-average pure gasoline injections have elevated storage ranges heading into this winter. We now anticipate inventories to achieve virtually 3,980 billion cubic toes (Bcf) on the finish of injection season, or 5 p.c greater than the 5 12 months common,” it went on to state.
The EIA highlighted in its newest STEO that this forecast is nearly 70 Bcf greater than it forecast final month.
“These greater than anticipated shares initially of winter help extra pure gasoline in storage all through winter 2025-26, assuming near-normal temperatures,” the EIA stated within the STEO.
“Pure gasoline inventories in our forecast finish the withdrawal season on March 31 at 1,990 Bcf, eight p.c above the five-year common,” it added.
The EIA famous in its newest STEO that it expects marketed pure gasoline manufacturing within the U.S. Decrease 48 states “to extend barely in 2026 to a mean of greater than 118 billion cubic toes per day (Bcfpd) as development from the three most prolific pure gasoline producing areas – the Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville – is partly offset by declines from producing areas in the remainder of the L48 states”.
The EIA highlighted in its October STEO that its forecast for U.S. marketed pure gasoline manufacturing in 2026 is 1.3 Bcfpd greater this month in contrast with its September STEO.
“We raised our expectations for pure gasoline manufacturing over the forecast based mostly on knowledge from July that confirmed pure gasoline manufacturing above our expectations, which elevated the start line for our forecast,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
The group acknowledged within the report that, in 2026, it expects the mixed manufacturing from the Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville areas to account for 69 p.c of general U.S. manufacturing.
“We anticipate manufacturing within the Haynesville area to develop by two p.c in 2026 to common 15.6 Bcfpd as greater pure gasoline costs has led to a rise in drilling exercise within the area,” the EIA stated.
“For 1H25, rig counts within the Haynesville area rose by seven to 39 rigs. We anticipate this pattern to proceed with the comparatively greater forecast Henry Hub costs in 2026,” it added.
The EIA famous in its October STEO that, prior to now, manufacturing within the Appalachia area has been constrained by restricted takeaway capability.
“However not too long ago with the addition of the Mountain Valley Pipeline and demand development from extra knowledge facilities within the Northeast which are growing regional demand for electrical energy – together with natural-gas fired technology – we anticipate manufacturing in Appalachia to develop by two p.c in 2026 and common 37.6 Bcfpd,” it added.
The EIA went on to state within the STEO that the Permian Basin has been essentially the most prolific pure gasoline development space prior to now and stated it expects the Permian area manufacturing to rise 9 p.c, or 2.3 Bcfpd, this 12 months.
“Within the Permian area, development in pure gasoline manufacturing is primarily the results of related pure gasoline produced throughout oil manufacturing,” the EIA stated within the report.
“As West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil costs in our forecast fall in 2026, we anticipate Permian pure gasoline manufacturing development to gradual to 1 p.c subsequent 12 months, reaching 28.0 Bcfpd,” it added.
“The forecast decline in WTI costs additionally reduces related pure gasoline manufacturing from different areas such because the Eagle Ford, Anadarko, and Niobrara areas,” it continued.
In a report despatched to Rigzone on Wednesday by the Customary Chartered workforce, the corporate projected that the close by NYMEX foundation Henry Hub close by future U.S. pure gasoline value will common $3.55 per MMBtu in 2025, $4.03 per MMBtu in 2026, and $4.40 per MMBtu in 2027.
In that report, Customary Chartered forecast that the commodity will are available at $3.80 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, $4.20 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.60 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.80 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.50 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
“We have now adjusted our value forecasts for U.S. pure gasoline, based mostly on the secular tendencies of U.S. LNG exports and data-center electrification,” Customary Chartered Financial institution Power Analysis Head Emily Ashford stated within the Customary Chartered report.
“We see near- to medium-term value help from growing home demand for data-center energy technology and export demand for LNG – notably destined for Europe – earlier than international LNG oversupply dangers develop into a headwind,” Ashford Added.
“We forecast Henry Hub pure gasoline futures averaging $4.025 per MMBtu in 2026 (from $3.30 per MMBtu), and $4.40 per MMBtu in 2027 (from 2.90 per MMBtu). Co-locating knowledge facilities with power-generation property – notably pure gasoline – is an rising pattern, significantly for ‘hyperscale’ AI-focused knowledge facilities, which may devour as a lot electrical energy as 100,000 households,” Ashford continued.
“Round 35 p.c of all international hyperscale knowledge facilities are situated in Virginia, which is proximal to giant pure gas-generation shale performs, notably the Utica and Marcellus shales. Texas can also be a hub and has the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford shut by. We consider that U.S. gasoline manufacturing can meet the elevated demand if costs pattern greater,” Ashford went on to state within the report.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
