In its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched not too long ago, the U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot worth forecasts for this 12 months and subsequent 12 months.
In line with its December STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot worth averaging $76.51 per barrel in 2024 and $69.12 per barrel in 2025. The EIA’s earlier STEO, which was launched in November, projected that the WTI spot worth would common $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.60 per barrel in 2025.
In its newest STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot worth will common $70.37 per barrel within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, $69.67 per barrel within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $69.83 per barrel within the second quarter, $69.50 per barrel within the third quarter, and $67.50 per barrel within the fourth quarter.
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The EIA’s November STEO noticed the WTI spot worth coming in at $72.32 per barrel within the fourth quarter of 2024, $73.67 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $73.17 per barrel within the second quarter, $71.17 per barrel within the third quarter, and $68.52 per barrel within the fourth quarter of 2025.
Each STEOs put the 2023 WTI spot worth common at $77.58 per barrel and the third quarter 2024 WTI spot worth common at $76.43 per barrel.
A analysis be aware despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis crew final Friday confirmed that J.P. Morgan expects the WTI Crude worth to common $76 per barrel in 2024, $69 per barrel in 2025, and $57 per barrel in 2026.
J.P. Morgan sees the WTI Crude worth averaging $70 per barrel throughout the fourth quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025, $73 per barrel within the second quarter of 2025, $69 per barrel within the third quarter, and $65 per barrel within the fourth quarter, the report confirmed. The corporate expects the commodity to come back in at $60 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026, $59 per barrel within the second quarter, $55 per barrel within the third quarter, and $53 per barrel within the fourth quarter, in keeping with the report.
A BMI report despatched to Rigzone on the identical day by the Fitch Group confirmed that BMI expects the entrance month WTI Crude worth to common $77 per barrel in 2024 and $73 per barrel in 2025.
One other report despatched to Rigzone late Tuesday by Normal Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell confirmed that the financial institution expects the NYMEX WTI foundation close by future crude oil worth to common $89 per barrel in 2025, $92 per barrel in 2026, and $103 per barrel in 2027.
That report revealed that Normal Chartered Financial institution sees the commodity averaging $86 per barrel within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $89 per barrel within the second quarter, $92 per barrel within the third quarter, $90 per barrel within the fourth quarter, and $88 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report despatched to Rigzone on Thursday, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst on the firm, warned that WTI positioning “stays in traditionally bearish territory”.
“Hedge funds and different institutional traders started rebuilding their positions in Brent final week amid OPEC+ negotiations,” Hvalbye stated in that report.
“Fund managers added 26 million barrels to their Brent contracts, bringing their internet lengthy positions to 157 million barrels – the very best since July. This uptick indicators a cautiously optimistic outlook, pushed by OPEC+ efforts to handle provide successfully,” he added.
“Nevertheless, whereas Brent’s positioning improved to the thirty fifth percentile for weeks since 2010, the WTI positioning stays in traditionally bearish territory, reflecting broader market skepticism,” he continued.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
