The U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil worth forecast for 2024 and 2025 in its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO).
In line with its Might STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot worth averaging $83.05 per barrel this 12 months and $80.88 per barrel subsequent 12 months. In its earlier April STEO, the EIA projected that the commodity would common $83.78 per barrel in 2024 and $82.48 per barrel in 2025.
The EIA forecast in its newest STEO that the WTI spot worth will common $84.76 per barrel within the second quarter of this 12 months, $85.50 per barrel within the third quarter, $84.17 per barrel within the fourth quarter, $83.50 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $81.50 per barrel within the second quarter, $80.50 per barrel within the third quarter, and $78.16 per barrel within the fourth quarter of subsequent 12 months.
That STEO highlighted that the WTI spot worth averaged $77.50 per barrel within the first quarter of 2024 and $77.58 per barrel total in 2023.
In its earlier April STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot worth would common $85.30 per barrel within the second quarter of 2024, $86.84 per barrel within the third quarter, $85.17 per barrel within the fourth quarter, $83.84 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $82.50 per barrel throughout the second and third quarters of subsequent 12 months, and $81.16 per barrel within the fourth quarter.
In a report despatched to Rigzone final week, Normal Chartered projected that the close by future NYMEX WTI foundation worth will common $95 per barrel within the third quarter of this 12 months, $103 per barrel within the fourth quarter, $104 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $100 per barrel within the second quarter of subsequent 12 months, and $108 per barrel within the third quarter of 2025.
The corporate forecast in that report that the commodity will common $106 per barrel total in 2025, $125 per barrel total in 2026, and $112 per barrel total in 2027.
In a separate report despatched to Rigzone earlier this month, analysts at Morningstar DBRS stated they have been growing their full-year 2024 WTI oil worth forecast to $75 per barrel from $65 per barrel “to replicate precise 12 months to this point pricing, a extra favorable full-year world liquids provide/demand stability, and a larger threat premium associated to geopolitical tensions relative to our prior forecast”.
“There isn’t a change to our earlier 2025 and 2026 WTI worth forecasts of $60 per barrel,” the analysts added within the report.
The Morningstar DBRS analysts famous in that report that their midcycle or normalized long-term worth band of $50 per barrel to $70 per barrel for WTI oil remained unchanged.
“The band displays our greatest judgment of (1) the marginal price of including new oil provides from sources equivalent to U.S. shale useful resource performs and (2) a world market that’s fairly properly balanced (based mostly on modest production-containment efforts by OPEC+ and modest progress in world demand),” they added.
“Our forecasts for each 2025 and 2026 fall inside this band,” they highlighted.
In a analysis be aware despatched to Rigzone on April 26, J.P Morgan projected that the WTI crude worth would common $79 per barrel this 12 months and $71 per barrel in 2025. The corporate forecast within the report that the commodity would common $80 per barrel throughout the second and third quarters, $81 per barrel within the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel within the first quarter of 2025, $73 per barrel within the second quarter, $69 per barrel within the third quarter, and $65 per barrel within the fourth quarter.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com