The U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) has decreased its Henry Hub pure fuel spot value forecast for 2025 in its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on Might 6.
On this STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value will common $4.12 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) this 12 months. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in April, the EIA forecast that the Henry Hub pure fuel spot value would common $4.27 per MMBtu in 2025.
The EIA elevated its Henry Hub pure fuel spot value forecast for 2026 in its Might STEO. This outlook sees the commodity averaging $4.80 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months. The EIA’s April STEO projected that the Henry Hub pure fuel spot value would are available at $4.60 per MMBtu.
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In its newest STEO, the EIA forecast that the Henry Hub pure fuel spot value will common $3.46 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2025, $4.19 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.68 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $5.10 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $4.35 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.84 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.89 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s April STEO noticed the commodity coming in at $3.93 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2025, $4.34 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.68 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.93 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $4.18 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.61 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.66 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2026.
“The Henry Hub spot value fell to $3.44 per MMBtu in April, down 68 cents per MMBtu from the March common,” the EIA famous in its Might STEO.
“The worth lower was primarily pushed by comparatively heat climate in March and early April, which led to increased than anticipated ranges of pure fuel injections into storage,” the EIA added.
“We anticipate pure fuel costs will rise within the coming months as the USA exports extra LNG and demand for pure fuel from the electrical energy sector will increase seasonally,” it continued.
“Our forecast for the 3Q25 Henry Hub value is sort of double the worth from a 12 months earlier and is contributing to our expectation of much less pure fuel use within the electrical energy sector on common this 12 months in contrast with final 12 months,” the EIA went on to state.
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Might 1, BMI projected that the Henry Hub value will common $3.2 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.6 per MMBtu in 2026, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2027, and $4 per MMBtu throughout 2028 and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included within the report forecast that the commodity will common $3.7 per MMBtu this 12 months, $3.9 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months, $4.1 per MMBtu in 2027, $3.9 per MMBtu in 2028, and $4 per MMBtu in 2029.
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on February 10, BMI projected that the Henry Hub value would common $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.8 per MMBtu throughout 2026 and 2027, and $4 per MMBtu throughout 2028 and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included in that report projected that the commodity would are available at $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.7 per MMBtu in 2026, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2027, and $4 per MMBtu in 2028. That Bloomberg consensus didn’t embody a Henry Hub value projection for 2029.
In a report despatched to Rigzone on Might 6 by Normal Chartered Commodity Analysis Head Paul Horsnell, Normal Chartered forecast that the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub close by future U.S. pure fuel value will common $3.35 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.30 per MMBtu in 2026, and $2.90 per MMBtu in 2027.
In that report, Normal Chartered projected that the commodity will are available at $3.50 per MMBtu throughout the second and third quarters of this 12 months, $3.20 per MMBtu throughout the fourth quarter of 2025 and the primary quarter of 2026, $3.70 per MMBtu within the second quarter of subsequent 12 months, and $3.50 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2026.
A analysis observe despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on Might 9 confirmed that J.P. Morgan anticipated the U.S. pure fuel Henry Hub value to common $3.80 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.31 per MMBtu in 2026.
J.P. Morgan noticed the commodity averaging $3.90 per MMBtu within the second quarter of this 12 months, $4 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.75 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $3.50 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.25 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.50 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent 12 months, that analysis observe highlighted.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
