The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil worth forecasts for 2023 in its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched this week.
In line with the March STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot worth averaging $82.95 per barrel and the WTI spot worth averaging $77.10 per barrel this yr. In its earlier STEO, which was launched at the beginning of February, the EIA projected that the Brent spot worth would common $83.63 per barrel and that the WTI spot worth would common $77.84 per barrel in 2023.
The March and February STEOs had equivalent oil worth forecasts for 2024. They each noticed the Brent spot worth averaging $77.57 per barrel and the WTI spot worth averaging $71.57 per barrel subsequent yr.
“We anticipate that the Brent crude oil spot worth will fall from a median of $84 per barrel within the second quarter of 2023 to $81 per barrel in 4Q23, after which common $78 per barrel in 2024,” the EIA said in its newest STEO.
“Though we anticipate world oil inventories will construct all through the forecast interval, we anticipate that prime demand for crude oil from refineries due to elevated refining margins will restrict downward strain on crude oil costs by means of 2Q23 as refiners keep excessive ranges of crude oil inputs to maximise distillate gasoline manufacturing,” the EIA added within the STEO.
“Russia was a key provider of distillate gasoline to Europe, and modifications in distillate commerce flows as Europe diminished imports of distillate from Russia in current months have saved distillate gasoline margins well-above five-year averages. Nevertheless, we forecast that rising world oil inventories will contribute to falling crude oil costs starting in 3Q23,” the EIA continued.
In its newest STEO, the EIA famous that it expects world oil and liquid fuels manufacturing will common 101.5 million barrels per day in 2023, which the group outlined could be up 1.6 million barrels per day from 2022. The EIA said in its March STEO that it expects world liquid fuels consumption to extend by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2023 from 2022. The group is at present projecting complete world consumption of 100.90 million barrels per day in 2023.
“China is the principle driver of progress in 2023 because the nation shifts away from its zero-Covid coverage, a shift that can improve journey,” the EIA mentioned within the STEO.
Fitch Options, Commonplace Chartered, Present Value
In an oil worth outlook report despatched to Rigzone this week, Fitch Options Nation Danger & Trade Analysis lowered its Brent oil worth forecast for 2023. In line with the corporate’s report, Fitch Options now sees Brent averaging $90 per barrel this yr. The corporate’s earlier oil worth outlook report, which was despatched to Rigzone at the beginning of February, confirmed that the corporate anticipated Brent to common $95 per barrel in 2023.
Each Fitch Options reviews additionally included a Bloomberg Consensus, which Fitch Options is a contributor to. The Bloomberg Consensus within the newest report noticed Brent coming in at $88 per barrel this yr, whereas the Bloomberg Consensus within the earlier report noticed Brent at $87.3 per barrel in 2023.
In a separate report despatched to Rigzone this week, Commonplace Chartered maintained its Brent oil worth forecast of $91 per barrel for this yr. Commonplace Chartered reviews despatched to Rigzone in February and January this yr confirmed the identical Brent worth projection for 2023.
On the time of writing, the value of Brent crude oil stood at $82.52 per barrel and the value of WTI stood at $76.51 per barrel.
The 2023 Brent peak shut, thus far, was seen on January 23, at $88.19 per barrel, whereas the commodity’s lowest 2023 shut, thus far, was seen on January 4, at $77.84 per barrel. The 2023 WTI peak shut, thus far, was on January 26, at $87.47 per barrel, and the bottom 2023 WTI shut, thus far, was seen on January 4, at $72.84 per barrel.
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