The U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) elevated its Henry Hub pure fuel spot worth forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its newest brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on April 10.
In line with its April STEO, the EIA now sees the Henry Hub spot worth averaging $4.27 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.60 per MMBtu in 2026. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in March, the EIA noticed the Henry Hub spot worth averaging $4.19 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.47 per MMBtu in 2026.
The EIA projected in its April STEO that the Henry Hub spot worth will are available at $3.93 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2025, $4.34 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.68 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.93 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $4.18 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.61 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.66 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
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The EIA highlighted in its newest STEO that the Henry Hub spot worth averaged $4.15 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025 and $2.19 per MMBtu total in 2024.
In its March STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot worth would common $3.88 per MMBtu within the second quarter of this 12 months, $4.30 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.49 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.66 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $4.13 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.50 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.60 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent 12 months.
The EIA’s March STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot worth would common $4.11 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025. This STEO additionally highlighted that the commodity got here in at $2.19 per MMBtu total in 2024.
“A colder than regular January and February this winter heating season resulted in additional pure fuel than common being withdrawn from pure fuel storage,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“We estimate greater than 1,600 billion cubic toes (Bcf) of pure fuel was withdrawn within the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), or 21 p.c greater than the five-year (2019 – 2024) common,” it added.
“On the finish of March, which marks the top of the U.S. pure fuel storage withdrawal season (November – March), we estimate that U.S. working pure fuel in underground storage totaled simply over 1,800 Bcf, or 4 p.c lower than the five-year common,” it continued.
The EIA highlighted within the STEO that it expects increased pure fuel costs this 12 months in contrast with 2024, which it stated “will encourage producers within the Appalachia and Haynesville areas to extend manufacturing”.
“Dry pure fuel manufacturing averages about 105 Bcfpd in 2Q25 in our forecast, almost three Bcfpd greater than the identical interval in 2024,” the EIA famous in its April STEO.
“The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub worth averages greater than $3.90 per MMBtu in 2Q25 in our forecast, virtually 90 p.c increased in contrast with 2Q24. We anticipate the Henry Hub worth to common about $4.30 per MMBtu in 2025 and almost $4.60 per MMBtu in 2026,” it added.
“We anticipate pure fuel injections into storage to be increased than common early within the pure fuel injection season (April – October),” it continued.
The EIA went on to disclose, nonetheless, that it expects injections to fall under the five-year common “starting in midsummer when pure fuel use within the electrical energy sector picks up”.
“We forecast U.S. pure fuel inventories will finish the injection season on October 31 with three p.c much less pure fuel in storage than the five-year common, with about 3,660 Bcf in storage,” it added.
A analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis crew on April 12 confirmed that J.P. Morgan anticipated the common U.S. pure fuel Henry Hub worth to common $3.80 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.31 per MMBtu in 2026.
J.P. Morgan noticed the commodity coming in at $3.90 per MMBtu within the second quarter of this 12 months, $4.00 within the third quarter, $3.75 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $3.50 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.00 within the second quarter, $3.25 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.50 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, the report highlighted.
A BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on April 11 confirmed that BMI anticipated the entrance month pure fuel Henry Hub worth to common $3.40 per MMBtu this 12 months and $3.80 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months.
A Normal Chartered Financial institution report despatched to Rigzone by Normal Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell on April 8 confirmed that Normal Chartered anticipated the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub close by future U.S. pure fuel worth to common $3.35 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.30 per MMBtu in 2026.
Normal Chartered Financial institution noticed the commodity averaging $3.50 per MMBtu throughout the second and third quarters of this 12 months, $3.20 per MMBtu throughout the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, $3.70 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2026, and $3.50 per MMBtu within the third quarter of subsequent 12 months, in line with the report.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
