The U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) elevated its Henry Hub spot worth forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched not too long ago.
In line with the STEO, the EIA now sees the Henry Hub spot worth averaging $4.19 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.47 per MMBtu in 2026. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in February, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot worth would common $3.79 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.16 per MMBtu in 2026.
The EIA’s newest STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot worth will are available in at $4.11 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $3.88 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.30 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.49 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.66 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $4.13 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.50 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.60 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
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In its earlier STEO, the EIA forecast that the Henry Hub spot worth would common $3.70 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this 12 months, $3.39 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.95 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.11 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.26 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.81 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.21 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.35 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2026.
“U.S. pure fuel costs have been greater this winter than we forecast in our Winter Fuels Outlook, included in our October 2024 STEO, as consumption elevated greater than anticipated,” the EIA mentioned in its newest STEO.
In its March STEO, the EIA famous that the Henry Hub spot worth averaged $4.19 per MMBtu in February, which it identified was up from the January common of $4.13 per MMBtu.
“The common worth for the primary two months of this 12 months was greater than $0.80 per MMBtu greater than we forecast in October,” the EIA mentioned in its March STEO.
“Beneath-normal temperatures in each January and February led to elevated consumption of pure fuel to fulfill area heating demand, which resulted in additional pure fuel being withdrawn from underground storage than estimated within the October STEO,” it added.
“In January and February mixed, 33 p.c extra pure fuel was withdrawn from storage than we had anticipated within the October forecast. In our present forecast, we count on pure fuel inventories in working fuel storage to be about 10 p.c decrease than the five-year common on the finish of the winter season (November–March) on March 31,” it continued.
“Due to the stronger than anticipated storage withdrawals in January and February, we now count on there shall be much less pure fuel in storage for the remainder of this 12 months, which has led us to lift our pure fuel worth forecast,” it went on to state.
“The Henry Hub worth on this STEO averages round $4.20 per MMBtu in 2025, which is 37 p.c greater than we forecast in October,” the EIA highlighted.
In its newest STEO, the EIA mentioned it expects the Henry Hub pure fuel worth to common $4.50 per MMBtu in 2026 as world demand for liquefied pure fuel grows.
“Two new LNG export services – Plaquemines LNG Part 1 and Corpus Christi Stage 3 – began LNG manufacturing in December 2024,” the EIA identified in its March STEO.
“We estimate that exports from Plaquemines LNG Part 1 averaged 1.1 billion cubic toes per day (Bcfpd) in February, indicating that the power operated at 85 p.c of its nominal capability that month,” it added.
“On February 27, the power acquired approval from the Federal Vitality Regulatory Fee to start liquefaction actions to the ninth and remaining block of Part 1,” it famous.
“The beginning-up timing over the following two years of two extra tasks – Golden Move and Plaquemines LNG Part 2 – is a supply of uncertainty in our forecast,” the EIA went on to state.
The EIA additionally mentioned in its newest STEO that it expects “China’s imposition of tariffs on U.S. LNG that had been enacted in early February to have little to no impact on U.S. LNG exports as a result of destination-flexible U.S. LNG cargoes could be routed to different world markets”.
In a analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on Friday, J.P. Morgan projected that the U.S. Pure Gasoline Henry Hub worth will common $3.53 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.23 per MMBtu in 2026.
In that word, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will common $3.55 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this 12 months, $3.75 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.45 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.35 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $3.50 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.00 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.15 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.23 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2026.
A report despatched to Rigzone by Normal Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell on March 11 projected that the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub close by future U.S. pure fuel worth will common $3.20 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $3.50 per MMBtu throughout the second and third quarters, $3.20 per MMBtu throughout the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, and $3.70 per MMBtu within the second quarter of subsequent 12 months.
That report forecast that the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub close by future U.S. pure fuel worth will are available in at $3.30 per MMBtu general in 2026, $2.90 per MMBtu general in 2027, and $3.13 per MMBtu general in 2028.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
