In its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on February 11, the U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) elevated its Henry Hub spot value forecast for 2025 and 2026.
In keeping with its February STEO, the EIA now sees the Henry Hub spot value averaging $3.79 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.16 per MMBtu in 2026. The EIA’s earlier STEO, which was launched in January, noticed the Henry Hub spot value averaging $3.14 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.97 per MMBtu in 2026.
The EIA projected in its newest STEO that the Henry Hub spot value will are available at $3.70 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this yr, $3.39 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.95 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.11 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.26 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent yr, $3.81 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.21 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.35 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
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In its earlier STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value would common $3.21 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $2.59 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.18 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.59 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.03 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.63 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.06 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.17 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
The EIA famous in its February STEO that the Henry Hub spot value averaged $4.13 per MMBtu in January. It highlighted that this was up greater than $1.00 from the December common of $3.01 per MMBtu.
“The above-average withdrawals from underground pure gasoline storage in January brought about costs to rise,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“The Henry Hub spot value reached a excessive of $9.86 per MMBtu on January 17 forward of a chilly snap that was anticipated to have an effect on a lot of the USA over the mid-month vacation weekend,” it added.
“The 37 % uptick within the month-to-month common Henry Hub value in January from December, mixed with our forecast of below-average storage inventories by the tip of 2025, elevated the annual common 2025 value in our forecast by round 65 cents in contrast with our January Quick-Time period Power Outlook,” it continued.
In its February STEO, the EIA warned that climate is at all times a threat to its Henry Hub value forecast throughout the winter heating season.
“An extra threat over the forecast interval consists of timing of latest liquefied pure gasoline manufacturing that builders anticipate to start out up over the following two years,” the EIA added.
“We anticipate China’s imposition of tariffs on U.S. LNG to have a restricted impact on U.S. LNG exports. With ample demand for LNG globally, we anticipate that any LNG not bought by China can be imported elsewhere,” it continued.
A report despatched to Rigzone by Customary Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell on February 11 confirmed that Customary Chartered anticipated the close by future NYMEX foundation Henry Hub U.S. pure gasoline value to common $3.20 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $3.50 per MMBtu throughout the second and third quarters, and $2.80 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter. The corporate noticed the commodity averaging $3.30 per MMBtu general in 2026, the report confirmed.
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on February 10, BMI, a unit of Fitch Options, projected that the Henry Hub value will common $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.8 per MMBtu in 2026. A Bloomberg consensus included within the report forecast that the Henry Hub value will common $3.4 per MMBtu this yr and $3.7 per MMBtu in 2026.
A analysis observe despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on February 7 confirmed that J.P. Morgan noticed the U.S. pure gasoline henry hub value averaging $3.50 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.94 per MMBtu in 2026.
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