Absent better navy involvement, the Trump administration has restricted leverage over Russia with out risking a spike in oil costs.
That’s what J.P. Morgan analysts, together with Natasha Kaneva, head of world commodities technique on the firm, mentioned in a J.P. Morgan analysis notice despatched to Rigzone by Kaneva on August 8.
“On the identical time, low oil costs will negatively have an effect on the Russian economic system,” the analysts mentioned within the notice.
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The analysts went on to state that Russia can develop its shadow fleet to bypass sanctions however added that alternatives have gotten extra restricted .
“The nation wants round 240 Aframax to move 3.5 million barrels per day of crude,” the J.P. Morgan analysts mentioned.
“Presently, about 99 tankers older than 20 years have a excessive chance of transitioning to the shadow fleet and 155 tankers aged 15-20 years … have a average chance of being transformed,” they added.
Rigzone has contacted the White Home and the Division of Info and Press of the Russian Ministry of International Affairs for touch upon J.P. Morgan’s analysis notice. On the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
In a separate J.P. Morgan analysis notice despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis crew late Monday, J.P. Morgan analysts mentioned the estimated worth of open curiosity in vitality markets declined by $19.5 billion week on week and has reverted to 10 week lows of $622 billion amid value weak spot throughout crude markets.
“Contract primarily based flows had been largely muted on the week at -$1.1 billion week on week throughout the sector, as -$3.8 billion week on week of outflows from refined product markets had been largely offset by inflows to pure fuel markets of $2.7 billion week on week,” the analysts mentioned in that notice.
In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone by the Normal Chartered crew late Tuesday, analysts at Normal Chartered Financial institution mentioned Brent crude costs drifted decrease on the week amid skinny buying and selling circumstances.
“October Brent settled near our machine studying mannequin SCORPIO’s forecast of an 11 August settlement of $67.00 per barrel, at $66.63 per barrel; every week on week fall of $2.13 per barrel,” the analysts mentioned within the report.
“The mannequin sees $67 per barrel as a snug goal within the close to time period, forecasting a modest $0.42 per barrel rise week on week to an 18 August settlement of $67.05 per barrel,” they added.
The Normal Chartered Financial institution analysts went on to state within the report that money-manager positioning in crude has moved additional to the quick aspect for all vitality merchandise over the previous week.
“The Normal Chartered mixed crude index fell by 10 week on week to -30, with WTI down 9.7 week on week to -79.0 and Brent down 5.8 week on week to 32.1,” they mentioned.
“Whereas heating oil stays the preferred vitality product in our survey at +64.5, it fell by 34.7 week on week,” they added.
A Stratas Advisors report despatched to Rigzone by the Stratas crew on Monday highlighted that the value of Brent crude ended the week at $66.32 per barrel after closing the earlier week at $69.67 per barrel.
“The value of WTI ended the week at $63.35 after closing the earlier week at $67.33. The value of Oman crude oil ended the week at $68.50,” the report identified.
In that report, Stratas warned that “extra draw back is probably going”.
J.P. Morgan describes itself on its web site as a number one international monetary providers agency with belongings of $3.9 trillion and operations worldwide. Normal Chartered states on its web site that it’s “a worldwide financial institution connecting company, institutional and prosperous purchasers to a community that gives distinctive entry to sustainable progress alternatives throughout Asia, Africa and the Center East”. On its web site, Stratas describes itself as a worldwide consultancy that “gives full spectrum protection of the vitality sector and associated industries”.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
