UK petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing will common 0.74 million barrels per day in 2024 and 0.75 million barrels per day in 2025.
That’s in response to the U.S. Power Data Administration’s (EIA) newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched earlier this month. The EIA’s December STEO put 2023 UK petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing at 0.80 million barrels per day in 2023.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO projected that UK petroleum and different liquid fuels output will common 0.75 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of 2024, 0.78 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025, 0.77 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 0.69 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 0.77 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
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UK petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing got here in at 0.77 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2024, 0.74 million barrels per day within the second quarter, and 0.69 million barrels per day within the third quarter, in response to the EIA’s December STEO.
The EIA’s petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing figures embrace crude oil, lease condensate, pure fuel plant liquids, different liquids, refinery processing achieve, and different unaccounted-for liquids, the December STEO highlighted.
Rigzone requested business physique Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) and UK regulator the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) for touch upon the EIA’s UK petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
OEUK has not but responded to Rigzone’s request with a remark on the time of writing. The NSTA declined to touch upon these forecasts. The NSTA did, nonetheless, direct Rigzone to the NSTA’s newest manufacturing projections, which have been made in October.
In line with these projections, the NSTA expects UK oil manufacturing to return in at 0.63 million barrels per day in 2024, 0.58 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.54 million barrels per day in 2026, 0.50 million barrels per day in 2027, 0.46 million barrels per day in 2026, and 0.43 million barrels per day in 2029.
UK crude oil manufacturing is forecast to return in at 0.57 million barrels per day in 2024, 0.53 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.49 million barrels per day in 2026, 0.45 million barrels per day in 2027, 0.42 million barrels per day in 2028, and 0.39 million barrels per day in 2029, the projections confirmed.
UK oil manufacturing averaged 0.70 million barrels per day in 2023 and the nation’s crude oil manufacturing averaged 0.63 million barrels per day final yr, the NSTA projection publication highlighted.
In line with the Power Institute’s (EI) newest statistical evaluation of world vitality, which was launched earlier this yr, UK oil manufacturing was 0.715 million barrels per day in 2023. That determine marked an 11.6 % yr on yr lower and 0.7 % of world oil manufacturing in 2023, the evaluation outlined.
From 2013 to 2023, UK oil manufacturing has dropped by a mean of 1.9 % yearly, the evaluation identified.
Oil manufacturing figures within the EI evaluation embrace crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or fuel condensates that require additional refining), and NGLs (pure fuel liquids – ethane, LPG, and naphtha separated from the manufacturing of pure fuel), the evaluation highlighted.
The figures exclude liquid fuels from different sources akin to biofuels and artificial derivatives of coal and pure fuel, the evaluation revealed. In addition they exclude liquid gasoline adjustment components, akin to refinery processing achieve, and oil shales/kerogen extracted in stable kind, the evaluation identified.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
