In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone late Tuesday by the Macquarie workforce, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be up by 6.5 million barrels for the week ending February 6.
“This follows a 3.5 million barrel draw within the prior week, with the crude steadiness once more realizing tighter relative to our expectations, albeit amidst important winter freeze noise,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“For this week’s stats, we once more see important room for volatility as freeze impacts work their approach by the info,” they added.
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“In any occasion, for the week ending 2/6, from refineries, we search for a minimal improve in crude runs, with turnaround timing including noise to the image. Amongst internet imports, we mannequin a significant improve, with exports decrease (-0.5 million barrels per day) and imports larger (+0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation,” they continued.
The strategists famous within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility within the weekly crude steadiness.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a big nominal bounce-back (+0.7 million barrels per day) following final week’s freeze impacts,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state.
“Right here too, the extent of lingering disruptions provides uncertainty. Rounding out the image, we anticipate SPR [U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares unchanged for the week ending 2/6,” they added.
The strategists additionally famous that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for a modest gasoline construct (+1.4 million barrels) offset by a distillate draw (-1.4 million barrels), with jet shares almost flat (+0.1 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~13.8 million barrels per day for the week ending February 6,” they went on to state.
U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, decreased by 3.5 million barrels from the week ending January 23 to the week ending January 30, the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) highlighted in its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing.
In response to that report, which was launched on February 4 and included information for the week ending January 30, crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 420.3 million barrels on January 30, 423.8 million barrels on January 23, and 423.8 million barrels on January 31, 2025. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 415.2 million barrels on January 30, 415.0 million barrels on January 23, and 395.1 million barrels on January 31, 2025, the EIA report revealed.
Whole petroleum shares – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene kind jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.690 billion barrels on January 30, the report highlighted. Whole petroleum shares have been down 25.1 million barrels week on week and up 85.1 million barrels yr on yr, the EIA report identified.
In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce previous to the discharge of the EIA’s February 4 weekly petroleum standing report, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they have been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would improve week on week.
“We’re forecasting U.S. crude inventories up 1.9 million barrels for the week ending January 30,” the strategists mentioned in that report.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on February 11. It would embrace information for the week ending February 6. The report states that it “offers well timed data on provide and chosen costs of crude oil and principal petroleum merchandise”.
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