In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie crew this week, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories shall be down by 1.5 million barrels for the week ending September 26.
“This follows a 0.6 million barrel draw within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing looser than our expectations,” the strategists stated within the report.
“For this week’s stability, from refineries, we mannequin a reasonable discount in crude runs (-0.3 million barrels per day) following a robust print final week,” they added.
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“Amongst internet imports, we mannequin a major discount, with exports (-0.3 million barrels per day) and imports (-0.8 million barrels per day) decrease on a nominal foundation,” they continued.
The strategists went on to warn within the report that the timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a small improve (+0.15 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation this week,” the strategists stated within the report.
“We proceed to imagine sturdy implied home provide Q3-to-date stays an underappreciated theme,” they famous.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a bigger improve (+0.7 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares this week,” they said.
The Macquarie strategists went on to notice that “amongst merchandise” they “search for a construct in gasoline (+1.4 million barrels), with distillate (+0.1 million barrels) and jet (down minimally) almost flat”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending September 26,” the strategists stated.
In its most up-to-date weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, which was launched on September 24 and included information for the week ending September 19, the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, decreased by 0.6 million barrels from the week ending September 12 to the week ending September 19.
That EIA report confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 414.8 million barrels on September 19, 415.4 million barrels on September 12, and 413.0 million barrels on September 20, 2024.
“At 414.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4 % beneath the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months,” the EIA stated in that report.
Crude oil within the SPR stood at 406.0 million barrels on September 19, 405.7 million barrels on September 12, and 381.9 million barrels on September 20, 2024, the EIA report revealed. Whole petroleum shares – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gasoline ethanol, kerosene kind jet gasoline, distillate gasoline oil, residual gasoline oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.687 billion barrels on September 19, the EIA report highlighted. Whole petroleum shares have been down 0.2 million barrels week on week and up 38.0 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the EIA report confirmed.
In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie crew on September 22, Macquarie strategists revealed that they have been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be down by 3.3 million barrels for the week ending September 19.
“This follows a 9.3 million barrel draw within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in that report.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on October 1. It is going to embody information for the week ending September 26. The report states that it supplies well timed info on provide and chosen costs of crude oil and principal petroleum merchandise.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
