In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone late Tuesday by the Macquarie staff, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories shall be down by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending August 29.
“This follows a 2.4 million barrel draw within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing barely tighter than our expectations,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“As now we have beforehand famous, we consider persistently robust implied provide has been a key function of the U.S. crude oil stability throughout Q3 to this point. As such, with U.S. oil manufacturing exiting Q2 at a document 13.6 million barrels per day in June, we see potential for this determine to maneuver greater as subsequent month-to-month information is reported,” the strategists added.
- Advertisement -
“For this week’s stability, from refineries, we mannequin a minimal discount in crude runs. Amongst web imports, we mannequin a slight lower, with exports (+0.3 million barrels per day) and imports (+0.2 million barrels per day) greater on a nominal foundation,” they went on to state.
The strategists warned within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we once more search for a rise (+0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation this week,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a smaller enhance (+0.5 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists additionally acknowledged within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for a wholesome gasoline draw (-3.0 million barrels) largely offset by builds in distillate (+1.4 million barrels) and jet (+1.0 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending August 29,” the strategists added within the report.
U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the week ending August 15 to the week ending August 22, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) highlighted in its newest weekly petroleum standing report, which was launched on August 27 and included information for the week ending August 22.
The EIA report confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 418.3 million barrels on August 22, 420.7 million barrels on August 15, and 425.2 million barrels on August 23, 2024. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 404.2 million barrels on August 22, 403.4 million barrels on August 15, and 377.9 million barrels on August 23, 2024, the report revealed.
Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene kind jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.662 billion barrels on August 22, the report highlighted. Complete petroleum shares have been down 3.6 million barrels week on week and up 6.8 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the report confirmed.
In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie staff on August 25, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they have been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories could be down by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending August 22.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on September 4. It is going to embody information for the week ending August 29.
A knowledge web page on the EIA web site exhibiting month-to-month U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil, which was final up to date on August 29 and which incorporates information from January 1920 to June 2025, confirmed that month-to-month U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil averaged 13.58 million barrels per day in June. This determine is the best within the information set.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
