In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie group forward of the discharge of this week’s U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) weekly petroleum standing report, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will likely be up by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending January 16.
“This follows a 3.4 million barrel construct within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing considerably tighter relative to our expectations, alongside a big gasoline construct,” the strategists, together with Macquarie vitality strategist Walt Chancellor, stated within the Macquarie report.
“For the week ending 1/16, from refineries, we search for a significant discount in crude runs (-0.4 million barrels per day); we see some potential for continued outperformance right here as turnarounds have been gradual to materialize,” the strategists added.
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“Amongst web imports, we mannequin a reasonable discount, with exports (-0.1 million barrels per day) and imports (-0.5 million barrels per day) decrease on a nominal foundation,” they continued.
The strategists warned within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility within the weekly crude stability, “as does timing of turnarounds”.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a modest nominal lower (-0.2 MBD),” the strategists stated within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a bigger enhance (+0.8 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares for the week ending 1/16,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists went on to state within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “once more search for one other wholesome construct led by gasoline (+5.0 million barrels), with distillate (+1.0 million barrels) and jet shares (+0.9 million barrels) additionally modestly larger”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~13.8 million barrels per day for the week ending January 16,” the Macquarie strategists famous.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched later immediately. It’ll embrace knowledge for the week ending January 16.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, which was launched on January 14 and included knowledge for the week ending January 9, the EIA highlighted that U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 3.4 million barrels from the week ending January 2 to the week ending January 9.
Based on this EIA report, crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 422.4 million barrels on January 9, 419.1 million barrels on January 2, and 412.7 million barrels on January 10, 2025. The report highlighted that knowledge could not add as much as totals because of unbiased rounding.
Crude oil within the SPR stood at 413.7 million barrels on January 9, 413.5 million barrels on January 2, and 394.3 million barrels on January 10, 2025, the report revealed. Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene sort jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.713 billion barrels on January 9, the report confirmed. Complete petroleum shares had been up 6.4 million barrels week on week and up 88.1 million barrels yr on yr, the report identified.
In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone on January 12 by the Macquarie group, Macquarie strategists, together with Chancellor, revealed that they had been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be up by 5.0 million barrels for the week ending January 9.
“This follows a 3.8 million barrel draw within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing comparatively near our expectations,” the Macquarie strategists stated in that report.
The EIA’s weekly petroleum standing report states that it “gives well timed info on provide and chosen costs of crude oil and principal petroleum merchandise”. On this report, the EIA describes itself because the unbiased statistical and analytical company throughout the U.S. Division of Vitality.
On its website, Macquarie describes itself as “a world monetary providers group working in asset administration, retail and enterprise banking, wealth administration, in addition to advisory, and danger and capital options throughout debt, fairness, monetary markets and commodities”.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
