In a Stratas Advisors report despatched to Rigzone by the Stratas staff late Monday, the corporate revealed that, “for the upcoming week”, it thinks the value of Brent crude “will transfer greater and can take a look at $73.00” per barrel.
Stratas Advisors outlined within the report that oil costs “will get assist” from a number of elements.
“Seven members of OPEC+ reached an settlement to deal with earlier oversupply with month-to-month cuts between 189,000 barrels per day and 435,000 barrels per day by way of June 2026,” the corporate famous within the report, highlighting one in all these elements.
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“Moreover, the international locations agreed to frontload the compensatory cuts. The majority of the cuts are to come back from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia,” it added.
“The revised plan aligns with our beforehand said expectations that offer from OPEC+ can be comparatively flat this 12 months, with OPEC+ worrying in regards to the extent of oil demand development,” it continued.
Highlighting one other issue, Stratas Advisors said within the report that the Trump administration positioned new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports to China, “together with sanctions on China’s impartial refiners”.
“Whereas we don’t anticipate that the sanctions can have a fabric impact, because the related transactions are executed utilizing Chinese language foreign money and with non-western transport, the sanctions do present that the Trump administration will proceed making efforts to disrupt Iranian oil exports,” Stratas Advisors stated within the report.
Outlining an extra issue, Stratas Advisors stated within the report that “oil demand can be choosing up as we transfer into hotter months for the northern hemisphere”.
“Whereas the IEA [International Energy Agency] just lately decreased its demand development forecast for 2025 from 1.10 million barrels per day to 1.03 million barrels per day, we expect that oil demand can be 1.30 million barrels per day,” the corporate added.
“We’re seeing development in U.S. demand, with gasoline demand operating 1.74 p.c greater than final 12 months over the last 4 weeks,” it continued.
“Demand for diesel and jet gasoline is operating greater than 7.0 p.c as compared with final 12 months. We’re additionally anticipating China’s demand can be greater than IEA’s forecast – particularly with China implementing a 30-point plan to extend client spending,” it went on to state.
Stratas Advisors warned within the report that “a counterweight to the constructive elements is the bearish sentiment of oil merchants”.
“After two consecutive weeks of will increase, merchants of WTI crude decreased their web lengthy positions by including to their brief positions, which offset the slight improve of their lengthy positions,” the corporate stated.
“Web lengthy positions of WTI are 62 p.c decrease compared to January 21 of this 12 months when the value of WTI was $75.89,” it added.
Stratas Advisors famous within the report that one other issue that can be damaging for oil costs is that if President Trump reverses his determination to withdraw Chevron’s license to supply and export oil from Venezuela, “which requires Chevron to stop operations in Venezuela by April 3”.
“It was reported final week that President Trump is reconsidering this determination,” the corporate said within the report.
In a market evaluation despatched to Rigzone this morning, Dilin Wu, Analysis Strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted that the U.S. Treasury “has prolonged Chevron’s working license in Venezuela till Might 27”.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC, the White Home, the Trump transition staff, the U.S. Division of Vitality, the Embassy of the Individuals’s Republic of China within the U.S., the State Council of the Individuals’s Republic of China, and Iran’s Ministry of International Affairs for touch upon Stratas Advisors’ report. On the time of writing, not one of the above have responded to Rigzone.
Stratas describes itself on its web site as a worldwide consultancy. The corporate “offers full spectrum protection of the vitality sector and associated industries”, based on its website, which notes that Stratas “ship[s] information, evaluation, and perception to main companies, governments, and establishments”.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
