South Korea’s plans to develop the share of nuclear in its long-term energy technology may pose draw back dangers to long run LNG demand.
That’s what analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Options, mentioned in a brand new report despatched to Rigzone not too long ago, highlighting that the nation’s tenth Fundamental Plan for Lengthy-term Electrical energy Provide and Demand envisages boosting the share of nuclear energy technology from 27.4 p.c in 2021 to 32.4 p.c by 2030 and as much as 34.6 p.c by 2036.
“In distinction, the plan cuts the share of LNG from 29.2 p.c in 2021 to 22.9 p.c in 2030 and to 9.3 p.c in 2036,” the BMI analysts acknowledged within the report.
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“It is a full reversal of former President Moon Jae-in’s coverage to close all reactors after they attain retirement age of 40 years and develop the function of LNG in energy sector. The choice to favor nuclear seems to be pushed by the will to decrease LNG import invoice and meet its goal of decreasing emissions by 40 p.c by 2030 as a part of long-term decarbonization technique,” the analysts added.
“We anticipate the brand new coverage to generate important implications on demand for LNG in [the] energy sector in the long run, however we don’t anticipate instant impression on LNG consumption within the close to time period as a consequence of sturdy market fundamentals supported by rising LNG imports and sharply declining spot LNG costs,” the analysts continued.
Close to-Medium Time period
Within the close to and medium phrases, the ability sector is predicted to supply important potential upside dangers to LNG consumption, based on the BMI analysts, who highlighted within the report that “demand development [is] largely anticipated to come back from the policy-driven conversion from coal to LNG at energy crops”.
The BMI representatives identified within the report that the previous President Moon Jae-in’s authorities had already shut 10 ageing coal-fired energy crops.
“In early 2022, the federal government has completely shut its two oldest coal-fired Honam No. 1 and No. 2 energy crops, which might be changed by new LNG-based ones according to earlier authorities’s push to scale back the nation’s reliance on coal in electrical energy technology,” the analysts mentioned.
“Due to this fact, we anticipate LNG to seek out assist from alternatives to interchange coal in energy sector because the authorities goals to scale back the function of coal from 34.3 p.c in 2021 to 19.7 p.c in 2030 and 14.4 p.c by 2036,” the analysts added.
“Fuel will stay the gas of alternative to interchange extra pollutive coal-fired energy technology,” the analysts went on to state.
Regardless of elevated spot LNG costs, South Korea’s LNG imports continued to extend in 2022, the BMI analysts famous within the report.
“LNG consumption from [the] energy sector remained excessive at round 11 million tons each year in 2022,” the analysts mentioned.
Upside Shock
Within the report, the BMI analysts predicted that South Korea’s LNG imports may shock to the upside if the nuclear targets fail to materialize.
“The federal government’s frequent coverage modifications signaled the unsure path to the function of fuel in power combine and supply-demand trajectories,” the analysts acknowledged.
“President Yoon might push ahead his insurance policies to be carried out all through his time period, however we don’t rule out his present power insurance policies may very well be reversed when his time in workplace ends in early 2027. We anticipate South Korea’s LNG imports to rise marginally over the short-and-medium time period rising to above 61 bcm in 2026 because it seems to be to interchange coal with LNG and develop LNG regasification and storage capability,” they added.
“Nonetheless, LNG imports are anticipated to say no from 2027 onwards, with whole imports falling to 54 bcm in 2032 in view of potential lack of demand stemming from growth of nuclear energy technology,” the analysts went on to state.
LNG Import Desk
In line with BP’s newest statistical evaluate of world power, which was launched in June 2022, South Korea was the third largest LNG importer in 2021 with a determine of 64.1 billion cubic meters. China was the highest importer, with 109.5 billion cubic meters, and Japan was the second largest importer, with 101.3 billion cubic meters, the report confirmed. Complete LNG imports in 2021 got here in at 516.2 billion cubic meters, the report revealed.
BP’s newest statistical evaluate, which exhibits LNG import information from 2011 to 2021, lists South Korea because the second largest importer of LNG in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. The evaluate lists South Korea because the third largest LNG importer in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. Japan was the highest LNG importer from 2011 to 2020, based on the evaluate.
Complete LNG imports in 2020 have been 490.1 billion cubic meters, the evaluate revealed. This determine stood at 484.2 billion cubic meters in 2019, 430.4 billion cubic meters in 2018, 393.3 billion cubic meters in 2017, 358.3 billion cubic meters in 2016, 337.1 billion cubic meters in 2015, 333.6 billion cubic meters in 2014, 326.8 billion cubic meters in 2013, 324.9 billion cubic meters in 2012, and 328.3 billion cubic meters in 2011, based on the evaluate.
New President
President Yoon Suk Yeol was inaugurated on Might 10, 2022, because the nation’s twentieth head of state, an English language model of the workplace of the President of the Republic of Korea web site exhibits.
“I stand earlier than you at this time, humbled by the belief and accountability that you’ve given me and aware of my solemn responsibility to rebuild this nice nation,” the brand new president mentioned in his inauguration speech, which was posted on the location.
“It’s our technology’s calling to construct a nation that espouses liberal democracy and ensures a thriving market economic system, a nation that fulfills its accountability as a trusted member of the worldwide group, and a nation that really belongs to the individuals,” he added within the speech.
“It’s crucial that we obtain speedy development and this can solely be attainable by science, know-how and innovation,” he continued.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
