In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) crew on Tuesday, SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop outlined that SEB expects the OPEC group to chop manufacturing quickly.
“We … anticipate OPEC to implement cuts to keep away from a big enhance in inventories in Q1-26,” Schieldrop mentioned within the report.
“The group will most likely revert to cuts both at its early December assembly after they focus on manufacturing for January or in early January after they focus on manufacturing for February,” he added.
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“The oil worth will probably head but decrease till the group reverts to cuts,” Schieldrop warned.
Within the report, Schieldrop highlighted that, in its not too long ago launched month-to-month report, the Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA) “estimates that the necessity for crude oil from OPEC in 2026 can be 25.4 million barrels per day versus manufacturing by the group in September of 29.1 million barrels per day”.
“The group thus must do some severe slicing on the finish of 2025 if it needs to maintain the market balanced and keep away from inventories from skyrocketing – on condition that IEA is appropriate that’s,” he added.
“We do nonetheless anticipate OPEC to implement cuts,” Schieldrop highlighted within the SEB report.
“We expect OPEC(+) will trim/lower manufacturing as wanted into 2026 to forestall an enormous build-up in world oil shares and a crash in costs however for now we’re nonetheless heading decrease. Into the $50ies per barrel,” he added.
In a separate SEB report despatched to Rigzone on October 7, Schieldrop mentioned “the message from OPEC+ over the [October 4-5] weekend was we’re nonetheless on a weakening path with rising provide from the group”.
He added, nonetheless, that “there’s nothing we’ve seen from the group to this point which signifies that they may shut their eyes, let the world drown in oil and the oil worth crash to $40 per barrel or under”.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC for touch upon the SEB reviews. On the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.
A press release posted on OPEC’s web site on October 5 revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day” in a digital assembly held that day.
“The eight OPEC+ international locations, which beforehand introduced further voluntary changes in April and November 2023, particularly Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met just about on 5 October 2025, to evaluate world market situations and outlook,” the assertion famous.
“In view of a gradual world financial outlook and present wholesome market fundamentals, as mirrored within the low oil inventories, the eight taking part international locations determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day further voluntary changes introduced in April 2023,” it added.
The assertion highlighted that this adjustment can be carried out in November. In keeping with a desk accompanying the assertion, Saudi Arabia and Russia’s adjustment quantities to 41,000 barrels per day, every. Iraq’s involves 18,000 barrels per day, the UAE’s is 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait’s is 10,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan’s is 7,000 barrels per day, Algeria’s is 4,000 barrels per day, and Oman’s is 4,000 barrels per day, the desk outlined.
The desk highlighted that November 2025 “required manufacturing” is 10.061 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.532 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.255 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.399 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.569 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.563 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 967,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 808,000 barrels per day for Oman.
“The 1.65 million barrels per day could also be returned partially or in full topic to evolving market situations and in a gradual method,” the OPEC assertion mentioned.
“The international locations will proceed to carefully monitor and assess market situations, and of their steady efforts to assist market stability, they reaffirmed the significance of adopting a cautious strategy and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the extra voluntary manufacturing changes, together with the beforehand carried out voluntary changes of the two.2 million barrels per day introduced in November 2023,” it added.
“The eight OPEC+ international locations additionally famous that this measure will present a possibility for the taking part international locations to speed up their compensation. The eight international locations reiterated their collective dedication to realize full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, together with the extra voluntary manufacturing changes that can be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee,” it continued.
“Additionally they confirmed their intention to completely compensate for any overproduced quantity since January 2024,” it went on to state.
The OPEC assertion additionally highlighted that the eight OPEC+ international locations will maintain month-to-month conferences “to evaluate market situations, conformity, and compensation”. It added that the eight international locations will meet once more on November 2.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
