In a launch despatched to Rigzone just lately, Rystad Power mentioned its newest analysis exhibits that world recoverable oil reserves “held largely regular at round 1,500 billion barrels”.
This determine was “down some 52 billion barrels” from Rystad’s 2023 evaluation, the corporate highlighted within the launch, noting that, “of this 12 months over 12 months lower, 30 billion barrels are because of one 12 months of manufacturing, and 22 billion barrels are principally because of downward changes of contingent assets in discoveries”.
“This complete recoverable oil useful resource of 1,500 billion barrels offers an higher restrict of how a lot oil will be produced over the subsequent 100 years or extra,” Rystad acknowledged within the launch.
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“In fact, this higher restrict is barely life like and economical if oil demand just isn’t impacted by the power transition, which means oil costs would rise far above $100 per barrel,” it added.
“On this theoretical ‘excessive case’, complete oil manufacturing would peak round 2035 at 120 million barrels per day, then decline steeply to 85 million barrels per day in 2050,” it continued.
The corporate acknowledged within the launch that, in a extra life like outlook for oil manufacturing, complete output would peak in 2030 at 108 million barrels per day and decline to 55 million barrels per day in 2050, with oil costs staying round $50 per barrel in actual phrases.
“Beneath this state of affairs, about one-third of the world’s recoverable oil, 500 billion barrels, would develop into stranded because of unprofitable developments,” Rystad mentioned.
“Such an aggressive power transition state of affairs would theoretically restrict world warming to 1.9 levels, however given the present trajectory of oil demand, this path appears unlikely,” it added.
Within the launch, Rystad reported confirmed oil reserves at 449 billion barrels, “based on acknowledged requirements”. This gives a decrease restrict for remaining oil reserves if no new growth tasks have been to be authorised and all exploration actions have been stopped, the discharge acknowledged.
Head of Evaluation at Rystad Power Per Magnus Nysveen, mentioned within the launch, “the world’s remaining oil reserves are inadequate to help oil demand if there isn’t any transition to electrical autos”.
“Makes an attempt to restrict the availability of oil could have hardly any impact on limiting world warming. As a substitute, the one possible manner of holding world temperatures rising lower than 2.0 levels Celsius is to make sure quick electrification of street transportation,” he added.
Rystad highlighted within the launch that its estimates of complete recoverable oil assets have fallen by 700 billion barrels since 2019 because of diminished exploration actions.
“Exploration has fallen as traders concern new discoveries will stay stranded as a result of ongoing electrification of autos and the anticipated hunch in each oil demand and crude costs,” Rystad mentioned within the launch.
Nation Evaluation
Rystad identified in its launch that Saudi Arabia was the nation with probably the most recoverable oil at 247 billion barrels.
The U.S. ranked second with 156 billion barrels, Russia was third with 143 billion barrels, Canada was fourth with 122 billion barrels, and Iraq was fifth with 105 billion barrels, based on the discharge.
“The biggest downward revisions are seen in Saudi Arabia, the place growth priorities have shifted from offshore capability expansions to onshore infill drilling,” Rystad acknowledged within the launch.
“The one nation with any important enhance in 2024 is Argentina, with a acquire of 4 billion barrels because of the derisking of shale tasks within the Vaca Muerta formation,” it added.
In line with the Power Institute’s (EI) 2024 statistical evaluation of world power, Saudi Arabia produced 9.60 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day in 2023. The U.S. produced 12.92 million barrels per day, Russia produced 10.55 million barrels per day, Canada produced 4.93 million barrels per day, and Iraq produced 4.27 million barrels per day, the evaluation confirmed.
The highest crude oil and condensate producer final 12 months was the U.S., adopted by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Iraq, based on the evaluation, which confirmed that complete world crude oil and condensate output was 82.75 million barrels per day in 2023. That determine was 1.7 p.c 12 months on 12 months, the evaluation highlighted.
The EI’s evaluation outlined that, in 2023, Saudi Arabia produced 11.38 million barrels of oil per day, the U.S. produced 19.35 million barrels of oil per day, Russia produced 11.07 million barrels of oil per day, Canada produced 5.65 million barrels of oil per day, and Iraq produced 4.35 million barrels of oil per day.
EI’s evaluation confirmed that the highest oil producer final 12 months was the U.S., adopted by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, and Iran. Whole world oil manufacturing in 2023 was 96.37 million barrels per day, based on the evaluation, which revealed that this was up 2.2 p.c 12 months on 12 months.
Recoverable oil reserve/useful resource figures in Rystad’s launch embrace crude oil and lease condensate. The EI evaluation’s crude oil and condensate figures embrace crude oil, shale/tight oil, oil sands, lease condensate or gasoline condensates that require additional refining. They exclude liquid fuels from different sources reminiscent of biomass and artificial derivatives of coal and pure gasoline.
The evaluation’s oil manufacturing figures embrace crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gasoline condensates that require additional refining) and NGLs (pure gasoline liquids – ethane, LPG and naphtha separated from the manufacturing of pure gasoline).
They exclude liquid fuels from different sources reminiscent of biofuels and artificial derivatives of coal and pure gasoline and liquid gasoline adjustment elements reminiscent of refinery processing acquire. Additionally they excludes oil shales/kerogen extracted in strong kind.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
