In a fuel and LNG market replace despatched to Rigzone by Rystad Power on Thursday, Rystad Senior Analyst Masanori Odaka highlighted that, on July 2, front-month Henry Hub costs for August decreased by 14.9 p.c week on week to $2.435 per million British thermal models (MMBtu).
Odaka outlined within the replace that the lower was “as a consequence of elevated pure fuel manufacturing and a lowered demand outlook”.
“Though fuel consumption is holding sturdy, with larger than regular demand anticipated within the coming weeks, it’s nonetheless inadequate to make a significant dent in storage,” Odaka famous within the replace.
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“Fuel shares remained elevated at 3,097 billion cubic toes for the week ending 21 June, 21 p.c above the five-year common,” Odaka added.
Within the replace, Odaka stated Decrease 48 each day dry fuel manufacturing continues to hover round 100 billion cubic toes per day and famous that June feedgas ranges remained flat at 12.8 billion cubic toes per day in comparison with Could.
In a earlier fuel and LNG market replace despatched to Rigzone on June 20, Rystad Power Senior Analyst Lu Ming Pang stated U.S. dry fuel manufacturing was reported to be at 99.3 billion cubic toes per day as of the week ending June 12. He highlighted that this was down barely from the 99.6 billion cubic toes per day reported for the week of June 19.
“Dry fuel manufacturing is forecast to extend to 102.8 Bcfd in July, in response to Rystad Power estimates,” Pang stated within the replace.
“That is web bearish for immediate Henry Hub costs regardless of the current heat climate, as operators start larger manufacturing on the again of stronger Henry Hub costs and anticipated larger summer time demand,” he added.
Pang identified within the replace {that a} “warmth dome” had continued to maneuver in direction of the U.S. Midwest and Northeast.
“The variety of cooling diploma days (CDDs) is predicted to stay larger than regular till July 4 on account of the warmth,” Pang acknowledged within the replace.
Pang highlighted within the replace that Feedgas into LNG terminals averaged 12.7 billion cubic toes per day from June 11-17. Pang outlined that this was decrease than the common of 13.1 billion cubic toes per day from June 4-10, which the Rystad consultant stated might have contributed to decrease demand within the Henry Hub.
“Feedgas ranges are anticipated to select up within the coming weeks, with the 1.4 million tons each year (Mtpa) Altamira FLNG anticipated to start-up in July, after a delay in its closing commissioning phases,” Pang stated.
“The floating LNG terminal initially anticipated to export its first cargo in June,” Pang added.
Pang famous within the replace that U.S. fuel storage ranges have been reported to be at 2,974 billion cubic toes as of June 7, “above the five-year most of two,831 billion cubic toes”.
“That is additionally larger than the two,610 billion cubic toes reported this time a 12 months in the past, and the two,401 billion cubic toes reported because the five-year common from 2019-23,” Pang added.
The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) elevated its Henry Hub value forecast for each 2024 and 2025 in its newest brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched final month.
In its June STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value will common $2.46 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.24 per MMBtu in 2025. In its earlier Could STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value would common $2.18 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.09 per MMBtu in 2025.
In a report despatched to Rigzone final month by Fitch Group, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Options, famous that, to fulfill their 2024 Henry Hub annual value common of $2.8 MMBtu, “costs are set to common at $3.4 MMBtu over the rest of the 12 months”.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
