Russian refineries are sitting geese on this trendy drone battle.
That’s what Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop stated in a report despatched to Rigzone by the SEB crew just lately, including that the oil market “is beginning to focus more and more on the profitable Ukrainian assaults on Russian oil infrastructure, particularly the assaults on Russian refineries”.
“Refineries are extremely advanced and far more durable to restore than easy crude oil services like export pipelines, ports, and hubs,” Schieldrop stated within the report.
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“It will possibly take months and months to restore advanced refineries. It’s thus primarily Russian oil merchandise which shall be harm by this. First oil product exports will go down, thereafter Russia must ration oil product consumption domestically,” he added.
“Russian crude exports will not be harm as a lot. Its crude exports might truly go up as its capability to course of crude goes down,” Schieldrop continued.
In a separate SEB report, which was referred to in Schieldrop’s report, SEB Chief Rising Markets Strategist Erik Meyersson acknowledged that Ukraine has amped up the strain on Putin with quite a few drone strikes on Russia’s vitality infrastructure.
“Sustained assaults will delay repairs, decrease oil merchandise exports, with rising passthrough to retail costs however, absent bigger munitions used, inflicting lasting harm shall be difficult,” Meyersson stated in that report.
“Russia is prone to pursue its personal corresponding assaults in coming weeks and regardless of greater interception charges on drones, Ukraine’s vitality infrastructure stays weak to particularly Russian ballistic missile assaults,” he added.
On this report, Meyersson, citing an article from the Monetary Occasions, highlighted that, “Ukraine has, for the reason that begin of August, struck 38 Russian refineries”,
“This contains Russia’s largest fuel-processing services, such because the 340,000 barrels per day plant at Ryazan, close to Moscow,” he added.
“Drones additionally hit Russia’s largest Baltic oil terminal in Primorsk and Kyiv claimed strikes on pumping stations feeding one other Baltic hub, the Ust-Luga terminal,” he continued.
Meyersson warned on this report that SEB sees “little cause to count on a cessation of preventing within the battle earlier than the tip of 2026, as financial, political, and provide components level towards continuation”.
“Preferences over the battle’s targets, sources to prosecute it, in addition to battlefield developments throughout it, all level to a extra extended battle,” he added.
Rigzone has contacted the Division of Info and Press of the Russian Ministry of Overseas Affairs, the Ministry of Power of the Russian Federation, the Press Workplace of the Ministry of Overseas Affairs of Ukraine, and the Ministry of Power of Ukraine for touch upon Schieldrop and Meyersson’s stories. On the time of writing, not one of the above have responded to Rigzone.
Schieldrop has greater than 25 years’ expertise from commodity markets, SEB’s web site states, including that he has “labored with evaluation, market modelling, structured offers in addition to buying and selling of commodities for a number of the largest commodity buying and selling corporations on the earth”.
“Since 2008 he has held the place as Chief Analyst Commodities in SEB overlaying vitality, metals, agricultural merchandise in addition to valuable metals. The vitality advanced has been the primary focus by way of his profession,” the positioning provides.
Meyersson joined SEB in 2023 as Chief Rising Markets Strategist, the SEB web site notes. Earlier positions embrace senior economist at Handelsbanken Capital Markets and vice chairman at Goldman Sachs Macro Analysis, the positioning highlights.
SEB describes itself on its web site as a number one northern European monetary companies group with a historical past courting again to 1856. The corporate has 19,000 staff, SEB’s web site reveals.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
