Efforts by the US and Europe to stem China’s dominance in inexperienced applied sciences danger stalling the battle in opposition to world warming, in line with the veteran diplomat tasked by Xi Jinping to characterize the highest polluter on local weather points.
Liu Zhenmin, appointed in January as Xi’s Particular Envoy for Local weather Change, this month heads for his first in-person conferences within the US since taking the position. These talks come at an important juncture for worldwide cooperation — with skepticism about pledges to section out fossil fuels, continued wrangling over funding for growing nations, and rising commerce protectionism focused at clear power provide chains.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has issued warnings about China’s overcapacity and report exports of low cost photo voltaic tools and lithium-ion batteries, whereas the European Union has launched probes into clear power and electrical autos.
- Advertisement -
“We have to preserve low prices, in any other case no one goes to have the ability to afford the power transition,” Liu mentioned in an interview with Bloomberg Tv. “What I’m anxious about is that if the US and European Union proceed to insist on that strategy, it could lead to a delay within the substitution of fossil fuels by renewables globally.”
Counting on expertise made exterior China may carry world power transition prices by as a lot as $6 trillion, or 20 p.c, Liu mentioned, citing a Wooden Mackenzie evaluation. Different nations can as a substitute reap the benefits of the growth amongst Chinese language corporations in manufacturing of fresh power tools, batteries and electrical autos, which has dramatically lowered prices.
“After greater than a decade of their laborious work, now we now have cheaper wind and photo voltaic merchandise, which make it extra reasonably priced to start out the power transition,” he mentioned. “I feel that that is good for each China and the world.”
Liu, who will meet in Washington with counterpart John Podesta, is optimistic over China’s capacity to satisfy Xi’s targets to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and hit web zero by 2060. He additionally sees the US and China as in a position to cooperate to proceed to steer world motion.
There’s potential to assist different nations develop their very own clear power provide chains, together with by Chinese language corporations investing in joint ventures, in line with Liu. Already China-based producers are constructing photo voltaic crops within the US, battery factories in Hungary and electrical automobile meeting strains in Thailand.
“Between China and the US, I hope we now have extra cooperative enterprises,” he mentioned. “I feel this joint design, this joint manufacturing, I feel it is going to be good to take away all these worries.”
A fluent English speaker and law-school graduate, Liu, 68, served as vice minister for international affairs till 2017, when he took up a United Nations put up.
Whereas referred to as a talented diplomat who’s well-versed in local weather points — and beforehand concerned in Kyoto Protocol and Paris Settlement negotiations — it’s much less clear if he can match his predecessor’s affect on China’s insurance policies, in line with Cory Combs, a local weather analyst at Trivium China.
Clear power sources may finally account for greater than 80 p.c of China’s energy combine, Liu mentioned. Photographer: Andrea Verdelli/Bloomberg
China’s earlier envoy Xie Zhenhua, who Liu calls a “local weather hero,” is extensively credited with serving to persuade Xi to set a 2060 purpose for carbon neutrality. Xie had served because the No. 2 official at China’s high financial planning physique, and ran a extremely revered local weather science institute at Tsinghua College.
“Liu is actually sensible, however nobody actually has a transparent sense but of his functionality to sway brokers of choice making,” Combs mentioned.
To ship an impression, Liu’s focus will must be on home motion along with world ties. China stays by far the biggest emitter of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, is the largest importer of oil and pure gasoline, and likewise mines and burns greater than half the world’s coal.
After seeming to peak a decade in the past, China’s coal use has been on the rise following a sequence of home energy shortages that stoked power safety worries, and because of increased gasoline costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The nation’s manufacturing of the gas soared to a report final yr, and China is within the midst of constructing an enormous fleet of new coal-fired energy crops. Additional complicating issues is a slowdown in financial progress.
“Expectations proceed to extend, however what China can provide proper now’s restricted due to completely different issues, principally financial but in addition on power safety as nicely,” mentioned Yao Zhe, world coverage advisor for Greenpeace East Asia in Beijing. “So Liu has the tough job of not simply having these conversations internationally, but in addition to mobilize help and assets domestically.”
Clear power sources may finally account for greater than 80 p.c of China’s energy combine, Liu mentioned within the interview. Coal presently makes up about 56 p.c of electrical energy era and can proceed to say no, he mentioned.
“Coal shall be tough to section out fully, however we have to make sure that coal can be utilized extra cleanly,” in line with Liu.
China’s world-beating deployment of renewables — the nation added extra photo voltaic panels in 2023 alone than the whole US fleet — is lastly encountering headwinds this yr, as producers see earnings slashed and energy grids wrestle to deal with the huge inflow of intermittent energy.
Although some areas at the moment are requiring photo voltaic and wind farms to curtail era at sure occasions to make sure energy infrastructure isn’t overloaded, the difficulty is one other local weather problem that China can shortly deal with, in line with Liu.
“We should remodel and improve the nationwide grid,” he mentioned. “It is not going to take a decade, it would take just a few years.”
