In an EBW Analytics Group report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW crew as we speak, Eli Rubin, an power analyst on the firm, outlined that pure gasoline “retreat[ed]…amid repeated substantial injections”.
“Yesterday’s EIA (U.S. Vitality Info Administration)-reported 110 billion cubic foot injection (3.9 billion cubic ft per day looser than five-year norms and the third consecutive triple-digit injection in solely the primary full week of Might) is deflating preliminary enthusiasm following the large post-tariff April deleveraging sell-off,” Rubin said within the report.
“In our view, the bullish impulses of the gasoline market could show appropriate – however are simply early,” he added.
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The EIA’s newest weekly pure gasoline storage report, which was launched on Thursday and included knowledge for the week ending Might 9, said that “working gasoline in storage was 2,255 billion cubic ft as of Friday, Might 9, 2025, in response to EIA estimates”.
“This represents a web enhance of 110 billion cubic ft from the earlier week. Shares had been 375 billion cubic ft lower than final 12 months at the moment and 57 billion cubic ft above the five-year common of two,198 billion cubic ft,” the EIA added.
The EIA famous in its report that, at 2,255 billion cubic ft, complete working gasoline is throughout the five-year historic vary.
Softening Enthusiasm for a Scorching Summer time
Within the newest EBW Analytics Group report, Rubin said that near-term cooling diploma days are ticking decrease, softening enthusiasm for a scorching summer time. Rubin added, nonetheless, that subsequent week may see late season heating demand within the Higher Midwest assist spot demand.
“Provide stays subdued and an rising East Area storage surplus to regular could stress Marcellus provide,” Rubin mentioned within the report.
“This week’s 36.5¢ (minus 9 p.c) sell-off within the 2025 injection season strip is reducing the projected injection season storage trajectory,” Rubin added.
“Whereas the outlook is supportive into late 2025, one other month of 100+ billion cubic foot/week common injections could lie forward first,” Rubin warned.
“Until scorching warmth returns to Texas and the Southeast past week one, gentle fundamentals point out little to excite bulls close to time period,” the EBW Analytics Group analyst went on to state within the report.
June Pure Fuel Contract Falls
In an EBW Analytics Group report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW crew on Thursday, Rubin highlighted that the June pure gasoline contract fell to $3.454 on Wednesday and identified that it was “retesting lows” on Thurday morning “after ERCOT Might peak load file did not elevate regional gasoline pricing”.
“Houston Ship Channel spot costs slid to $3.08 and Henry Hub bodily gasoline traded at $3.30,” Rubin highlighted in that report.
“Within the rapid time period, technical assist on the 20-day shifting common of $3.42 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) and 200-day shifting common of $3.40 are potential inflection factors,” Rubin said in yesterday’s report.
Rubin mentioned in that report that “LNG is gentle with Corpus Christi and Cameron present process upkeep” however added that “Plaquemines is testing file highs”.
“Consensus estimates level to a monster 109-111 billion cubic foot injection this morning, though surprises have been widespread this spring,” Rubin warned in Thursday’s report.
“The long-term pure gasoline outlook seems brilliant, however bulls face a slog of triple-digit injections extending into early June first,” he added.
“Henry Hub spot costs averaging $3.18 per MMBtu month up to now proceed to exert a restraining drive on NYMEX gasoline futures,” Rubin continued.
EBW Analytics Group offers impartial professional evaluation of pure gasoline, electrical energy, and crude oil markets, the corporate’s website states.
Rubin is an professional in econometrics, statistics, microeconomics, and energy-related public coverage, the positioning provides, noting that he’s “instrumental in designing the algorithms utilized in our fashions, and in assessing the potential discrepancies between theoretical and sensible market results of fashions and historic outcomes”.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
