In an EBW Analytics Group report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW staff at the moment, Eli Rubin, an vitality analyst on the firm, outlined that “oversold NYMEX pure gasoline trampoline[d]… greater” on Tuesday.
The report identified that the June pure gasoline contract closed at $3.427 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) yesterday, and that this represented a 31.4¢, or 10.1 p.c, improve.
“The six periods ending Monday noticed a 68¢ (-18 p.c) re-pricing of the June pure gasoline contract, with Monday’s low inside 0.1¢ of the front-month’s closing low in late April,” Rubin famous within the report.
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“Yesterday’s rally, helped by short-covering, could point out a line within the sand – and will mark a bullish, long-term technical double-bottom sample into summer season,” he added.
Within the report, Rubin identified that “fundamentals don’t clarify Monday’s dramatic sell-off or Tuesday’s rip greater”.
“Henry Hub spot costs averaged $3.15 per MMBtu yesterday. Climate shifts have been comparatively minor and never an vital driver,” he added.
“Neither manufacturing nor LNG have exhibited distinctive swings. 2025 injection season contracts have moved solely 5.7¢ since Friday,” Rubin continued.
Rubin additionally warned within the report that “volatility might lengthen” with Thursday’s U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) weekly pure gasoline storage report, “unsure bodily markets into Memorial Day, and June choices expiry and ultimate settlement subsequent week”.
“After near-term catalysts clear, there’s a probability for July contract upside after it turns into the front-month subsequent week, with newly reset bullish technicals suggesting outsized achieve,” Rubin went on to state within the report.
In its newest weekly pure gasoline storage report on the time of writing, which was launched on Might 15 and included knowledge for the week ending Might 9, the EIA acknowledged that “working gasoline in storage was 2,255 billion cubic ft as of Friday, Might 9, 2025, in line with EIA estimates”.
This represents a web improve of 110 billion cubic ft from the earlier week, the EIA acknowledged within the report, including that “shares have been 375 billion cubic ft lower than final yr at the moment and 57 billion cubic ft above the five-year common of two,198 billion cubic ft”.
At 2,255 billion cubic ft, whole working gasoline is inside the five-year historic vary, the EIA famous in that report.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly pure gasoline storage report will embody knowledge for the week ending Might 16.
In an EBW report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW staff on Tuesday, Rubin mentioned the June pure gasoline contract “shed one other 22.1¢ yesterday [Monday], testing assist as little as $3.098, as indelibly weak shoulder season fundamentals proceed to pummel the market”.
“The front-month has now misplaced 68.2¢ in six periods, and technicals stay bearish,” Rubin added in that report.
In an EBW report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW staff on Monday, Rubin highlighted that the June pure gasoline contract was extending decrease that morning “as weak Henry Hub spot costs exert a gravitational pull, technicals point out additional weak spot, and manufacturing readings rise weekend over weekend amid ebbing pipeline upkeep”.
A analysis notice despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on Might 17 confirmed that J.P. Morgan anticipated the U.S. pure gasoline Henry Hub worth to common $3.80 per MMBtu total in 2025. In that report, J.P. Morgan projected that the commodity would common $3.90 per MMBtu within the second quarter of this yr, $4.00 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.75 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2025.
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Might 16, BMI forecast that the entrance month pure gasoline Henry Hub worth would common $3.2 per MMBtu this yr.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
