OPEC+ will probably elevate its quotas by one other 137,000 barrels per day for November after they meet on October 5, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop mentioned in a report despatched to Rigzone on Monday morning by the SEB staff.
“OPEC+ will determine on 5 October on what to do with manufacturing quotas for November,” Schieldrop highlighted within the report.
“Market consensus appears to be that the group will elevate its general quota by 137,000 barrels per day but once more – we absolutely share that view,” he added.
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“When it lifted the quotas for October by 137,000 barrels per day initially to September the Brent crude oil worth was buying and selling at $65.5 per barrel. Now it’s near $70 per barrel,” he continued.
“It appears extremely probably that they’ll elevate the quota but once more. The group naturally loves a great worth, however proper now the group is in a means of recapturing market share,” Schieldrop went on to state.
Within the report, Schieldrop outlined that the value of Brent crude was down one % to $69.4 per barrel on Monday morning “partially resulting from this”.
In a separate report despatched to Rigzone by the Commonplace Chartered staff final week, Commonplace Chartered Financial institution Vitality Analysis Head Emily Ashford highlighted that “OPEC has accelerated its return of barrels, with one eye on adherence to compensation cuts and the opposite on the notion of tightening spare capability”.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC for touch upon the SEB and Commonplace Chartered stories. On the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.
An announcement posted on OPEC’s web site on September 7 revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day” at a digital assembly that day.
“The eight OPEC+ nations, which beforehand introduced further voluntary changes in April and November 2023 … met nearly on 7 September 2025 to evaluation world market situations and outlook,” the assertion famous.
“In view of a gradual world financial outlook and present wholesome market fundamentals, as mirrored within the low oil inventories, the eight collaborating nations determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day further voluntary changes introduced in April 2023,” the assertion added.
This adjustment shall be carried out in October 2025, the assertion mentioned. A desk accompanying the assertion posted on OPEC’s web site outlined that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s adjustment quantities to 42,000 barrels per day, every. Iraq’s involves 17,000 barrels per day, the UAE’s is 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait’s is 11,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan’s is 6,000 barrels per day, Algeria’s is 4,000 barrels per day, and Oman’s is 3,000 barrels per day, the desk outlined.
The desk highlighted that October 2025 “required manufacturing” is 10.020 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.491 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.237 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.387 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.559 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.556 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 963,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 804,000 barrels per day for Oman.
“The 1.65 million barrels per day could also be returned partially or in full topic to evolving market situations and in a gradual method,” the assertion posted on OPEC’s web site famous.
“The nations will proceed to intently monitor and assess market situations, and of their steady efforts to help market stability, they reaffirmed the significance of adopting a cautious strategy and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the extra voluntary manufacturing changes, together with the beforehand carried out voluntary changes of the two.2 million barrels per day introduced in November 2023,” it added.
“The eight OPEC+ nations additionally famous that this measure will present a possibility for the collaborating nations to speed up their compensation,” it continued.
“The eight nations reiterated their collective dedication to realize full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, together with the extra voluntary manufacturing changes that shall be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC),” the assertion went on to notice.
The nations additionally “confirmed their intention to completely compensate for any overproduced quantity since January 2024”, in response to the assertion on OPEC’s web site, which mentioned the eight OPEC+ nations will maintain month-to-month conferences to evaluation market situations, conformity, and compensation. The assertion revealed that the eight nations will meet once more on October 5.
In a separate assertion posted on OPEC’s web site on September 8, the OPEC Secretariat mentioned it had acquired up to date compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
A desk accompanying this assertion revealed that these plans quantity to a complete of 235,000 barrels per day in October, 248,000 barrels per day in November, and 190,000 barrels per day in December. The plans quantity to a complete of 4.779 million barrels per day from August 2025 to June 2026, in response to the desk.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
