OPEC+ is within the means of retaking market share, Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), and Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB, mentioned in an oil report despatched to Rigzone by the SEB workforce on Tuesday.
“Oil costs are prone to fall for a fourth straight 12 months as OPEC+ unwinds cuts and retakes market share,” the analysts mentioned within the report.
“We anticipate Brent crude to common $55 per barrel in This fall/25 earlier than OPEC+ steps in to stabilize the market into 2026,” they added.
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“Surplus, inventory constructing, oil costs are underneath stress with OPEC+ calling the pictures as to how tough it needs to play it,” they went on to state.
The SEB analysts famous within the report that OPEC+ is in a means of unwinding voluntary cuts by a sub-group of the members and taking again market share however added that the method seems to be set to be completely different from 2014-16, “because the group doesn’t look prone to blindly carry manufacturing to take again market share”.
“The group has said very explicitly that it may simply as nicely reduce manufacturing as improve it forward,” Hvalbye and Schieldrop identified within the report.
“Whereas the oil worth is unlikely to drop as violently and lasting as in 2014-16, it’ll possible fall additional earlier than the group steps in with recent cuts to stabilize the value,” they warned.
“We anticipate Brent to fall to $55 per barrel in This fall/25 earlier than the group steps in with recent cuts on the finish of the 12 months,” they continued.
In a market remark despatched to Rigzone on Friday, Van Ha Trinh, Monetary Markets Strategist at Exness, mentioned, “the rise in OPEC output throughout September has strengthened issues about oversupply”.
“Whereas a possible pause in manufacturing hikes after that would present some short-term aid, merchants are prone to stay cautious till there’s clearer steering from the following OPEC assembly,” Trinh added.
“The market’s route may rely on whether or not the group indicators restraint within the coming months or prioritizes market share, as both route may set the tone for This fall pricing,” Trinh went on to state.
In a market evaluation despatched to Rigzone on Thursday, Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Buyer Relationship Administration at Kudotrade, mentioned “OPEC+ output continues to rise, with additional will increase anticipated in September” and highlighted that “merchants may monitor OPEC’s subsequent assembly for an replace on the group’s manufacturing targets and their influence on provide”.
“A pause may present the market with some assist,” Chrysikos famous within the evaluation.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC for touch upon the statements by Hvalbye and Schieldrop, Trinh, and Chrysikos. On the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.
In an oil report despatched to Rigzone by the SEB workforce final week, Schieldrop mentioned there’s an growing threat that OPEC+ will unwind the final 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts once they meet on September 7.
Within the report, Schieldrop outlined that the oil market “reveals pockets of energy blinking right here and there” and warned that “this clearly will increase the prospect that OPEC+ decides to unwind the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts once they meet on 7 September to debate manufacturing in October”. Schieldrop added within the report, nonetheless, that the group might cut up the unwind over two or three months.
“After that the group can begin once more with a clear slate and talk about OPEC+ extensive cuts slightly than voluntary cuts by a sub-group,” Shieldrop mentioned within the report.
“That paves the best way for OPEC+ extensive cuts into Q1-26 the place a big surplus is projected until the group kicks in with cuts,” he added.
Rigzone beforehand contacted OPEC for touch upon Schieldrop’s statements. OPEC didn’t reply to this Rigzone request for remark.
An announcement posted on OPEC’s web site on August 3 introduced that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “will implement a manufacturing adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September”.
“The eight OPEC+ international locations, which beforehand introduced further voluntary changes in April and November 2023 … met just about on 3 August 2025, to overview international market circumstances and outlook,” the assertion famous.
“In view of a gentle international financial outlook and present wholesome market fundamentals, as mirrored within the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the choice agreed upon on 5 December 2024 to start out a gradual and versatile return of the two.2 million barrels per day voluntary changes ranging from 1 April 2025, the eight collaborating international locations will implement a manufacturing adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 from August 2025 required manufacturing stage,” the assertion added.
“That is equal to 4 month-to-month increments … The phase-out of the extra voluntary manufacturing changes could also be paused or reversed topic to evolving market circumstances. This flexibility will permit the group to proceed to assist oil market stability,” it continued.
The eight international locations are subsequent scheduled to satisfy on September 7, the assertion revealed.
In keeping with a desk accompanying that assertion, September “required manufacturing” is 9.978 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.449 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.220 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.375 million barrels per day for the United Arab Emirates, 2.548 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.550 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 959,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 801,000 barrels per day for Oman.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
