In a analysis be aware despatched to Rigzone by the HSBC staff on Tuesday, HSBC Senior International Oil and Fuel Analyst Kim Fustier highlighted that the OPEC+ group hit the “pause, not cease button” at its newest assembly.
“On 2 November, OPEC+ introduced a 137,000 barrel per day quota enhance for December, the third consecutive such enhance and equal to 1/twelfth of the 1.65 million barrel per day voluntary cuts,” Fustier stated within the be aware.
“This was in step with market expectations and our forecast. The shock got here from the announcement of a three-month pause in output enhance from January to March 2026, on account of ‘seasonality’,” Fustier added.
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“We now have lengthy warned that demand seasonality was working in opposition to OPEC+ in 4Q and 1Q, however OPEC+ had to date appeared decided to regain market share,” Fustier continued.
Within the be aware, the HSBC analyst famous that the choice shouldn’t be learn as a significant change in OPEC+’s technique of regaining market share.
“Regardless of optimistic public statements by numerous OPEC ministers, seasonally weaker 1Q demand is a real concern for the group,” Fustier stated.
“OPEC’s demand forecasts, whereas extra optimistic than the IEA’s [International Energy Agency], present a a million barrel per day drop in international demand from 4Q to 1Q26,” the HSBC analyst identified.
Fustier went on to state within the be aware that, “even now that OPEC+ has paused”, HSBC stays “very skeptical concerning the group reversing the unwinding and slicing once more”.
“We count on it to contemplate doing provided that Brent stays beneath $55 per barrel for a chronic interval,” Fustier stated.
“It is because its personal provide and demand balances stay much more optimistic than different companies, with a small deficit anticipated for 2026 in opposition to consensus of a giant oversupply,” Fustier added.
The HSBC analyst famous that OPEC+’s first quarter 2026 pause has a “marginally optimistic influence” on HSBC’s balances however added that this was “not sufficient to keep away from a big surplus subsequent 12 months”.
“In our up to date provide and demand mannequin, we assume that OPEC+ catches up with quota hikes equal to 2 month-to-month will increase from Might to July 2026,” Fustier stated within the be aware.
“We now forecast a 2.7 million barrel per day oversupply in 1Q26 (vs three million barrels per day beforehand), and a couple of.1 million barrels per day in 2026 on common (vs 2.4 million barrels per day beforehand),” Fustier highlighted.
Within the analysis be aware, Fustier identified that HSBC made no modifications to its Brent oil value assumption, “which stays $65 per barrel in 4Q 2025 and from 2026 onwards”.
A BofA International Analysis report despatched to Rigzone by the BofA staff on Monday outlined that the corporate anticipated OPEC+’s 137,000 barrel per day output adjustment however didn’t count on the primary quarter pause.
“Whereas OPEC attributed this three month pause to seasonality (usually much less demand within the 1Q), it actually means that OPEC+ acknowledges the oversupply and certain means that they don’t wish to ship oil costs far decrease (i.e. beneath $50),” the report stated.
“We count on this attainable ‘flooring’ to be seen positively by traders. This helps our commodities staff’s longstanding view that Saudi is looking for an extended, shallow value battle that will get them to ~11 million barrels per day sustainably,” it added.
The BofA International Analysis report said that, for the previous 12 months and a half, most seen a 2025/26 oil oversupply as inevitable.
“This was exacerbated in April by OPEC’s choice to start bringing again barrels,” the report added.
The BofA International Analysis report went on to state that “the oversupply will nonetheless probably weigh on oil value into 2026”.
In a market evaluation despatched to Rigzone on Monday, Wael Makarem, Monetary Markets Strategists Lead at Exness, highlighted that “crude oil costs have been comparatively steady at first of the week”.
“Merchants might stay cautious amid issues a few provide glut and following OPEC’s choice,” Makarem added.
“The choice might relieve the market from additional draw back stress as merchants deal with dangers of oversupply,” Makarem continued.
“On the similar time, the market might discover help in persevering with geopolitical dangers,” he went on to state.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC for touch upon the HSBC analysis be aware, the BofA International Analysis report, and Makarem’s evaluation. Rigzone has additionally contacted Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of International Affairs for touch upon the BofA report. On the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
An announcement posted on OPEC’s web site on Sunday revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day” in a digital assembly held that day.
“The eight OPEC+ international locations, which beforehand introduced further voluntary changes in April and November 2023 … met nearly on 2 November 2025, to overview international market circumstances and outlook,” that assertion famous.
“In view of a gradual international financial outlook and present wholesome market fundamentals, as mirrored within the low oil inventories, the eight collaborating international locations determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day further voluntary changes introduced in April 2023,” it added.
The assertion stated this adjustment can be applied in December 2025. It additionally introduced that, “past December, on account of seasonality, the eight international locations … determined to pause the manufacturing increments in January, February, and March 2026”.
In line with a desk accompanying the assertion, Saudi Arabia and Russia’s December adjustment quantities to 41,000 barrels per day, every. Iraq’s involves 18,000 barrels per day, the UAE’s is 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait’s is 10,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan’s is 7,000 barrels per day, Algeria’s is 4,000 barrels per day, and Oman’s is 4,000 barrels per day, the desk outlined.
The desk highlighted that December 2025, January 2026, February 2026, and March 2026 “required manufacturing” is 10.103 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.574 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.273 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.411 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.580 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.569 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 971,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 811,000 barrels per day for Oman.
“The eight collaborating international locations reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day could also be returned partially or in full topic to evolving market circumstances and in a gradual method,” the OPEC assertion famous.
“The international locations will proceed to intently monitor and assess market circumstances, and of their steady efforts to help market stability, they reaffirmed the significance of adopting a cautious method and retaining full flexibility to proceed pausing or reverse the extra voluntary manufacturing changes, together with the beforehand applied voluntary changes of the two.2 million barrels per day introduced in November 2023,” it added.
“The eight OPEC+ international locations additionally famous that this measure will present a chance for the collaborating international locations to speed up their compensation,” it continued.
The assertion went on to notice that the eight international locations “reiterated their collective dedication to attain full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, together with the extra voluntary manufacturing changes that can be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)”.
“In addition they confirmed their intention to completely compensate for any overproduced quantity since January 2024,” it stated.
In line with the assertion, the eight OPEC+ international locations will maintain month-to-month conferences to overview market circumstances, conformity, and compensation. The eight international locations are subsequent scheduled to satisfy on November 30, 2025.
In a separate assertion posted on OPEC’s website on November 2, the OPEC Secretariat introduced that it had obtained up to date compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
A desk accompanying this assertion confirmed that these compensation plans quantity to a complete of 185,000 barrels per day in October, 236,000 barrels per day in November, 274,000 barrels per day in December, 393,000 barrels per day in January 2026, 574,000 barrels per day in February 2026, 718,000 barrels per day in March 2026, 681,000 barrels per day in April 2026, 738,000 barrels per day in Might 2026, and 822,000 barrels per day in June 2026.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
