A press release posted on OPEC’s web site on January 4 revealed that, in a gathering held on Sunday, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “reaffirmed their choice on 2 November 2025 to pause manufacturing increments in February and March 2026 resulting from seasonality”.
In keeping with a desk accompanying the assertion, “required manufacturing” in February and March this 12 months is 10.103 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.574 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.273 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.411 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.580 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.569 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 971,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 811,000 barrels per day for Oman.
The assertion highlighted that the eight OPEC+ nations, “which beforehand introduced further voluntary changes in April and November 2023”, met nearly on January 4 “to assessment world market situations and outlook”. It stated the eight taking part nations “reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day could also be returned partially or in full topic to evolving market situations and in a gradual method”.
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“The nations will proceed to intently monitor and assess market situations, and of their steady efforts to help market stability, they reaffirmed the significance of adopting a cautious strategy and retaining full flexibility to proceed pausing or reverse the extra voluntary manufacturing changes, together with the beforehand carried out voluntary changes of the two.2 million barrels per day introduced in November 2023,” the assertion stated.
“The eight nations reiterated their collective dedication to attain full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, together with the extra voluntary manufacturing changes that will probably be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee,” it added.
“In addition they confirmed their intention to completely compensate for any overproduced quantity since January 2024,” it continued.
The assertion went on to notice that the eight OPEC+ nations will maintain month-to-month conferences “to assessment market situations, conformity, and compensation”, including that the eight nations will meet on February 1.
In an announcement despatched to Rigzone on Monday morning, Naeem Assam, Chief Analyst at Zaye Capital Markets, stated, “oil stays vary sure … underscoring that macroeconomic weak spot is outweighing geopolitical threat”.
“With OPEC holding manufacturing regular and the Worldwide Power Company [IEA] sustaining delicate demand projections for Q1 2026, the market stays centered on oversupply and weak demand,” he added.
“As we speak’s ISM Manufacturing PMI could drive brief time period volatility, however sustained upside is unlikely with out an OPEC coverage shift or clear stock drawdowns,” he continued.
In a market evaluation despatched to Rigzone immediately, Frank Walbaum, Market Analyst at Naga, stated “crude oil entered the primary full buying and selling week of 2026 with extra volatility”.
“Geopolitical dangers in Latin America and elsewhere create upside strain over the brief time period. Nevertheless, the market might stay beneath strain over the long run as a projected world provide surplus might outweigh the latest geopolitical developments in Latin America,” he added.
Walbaum highlighted within the assertion that OPEC+ “reaffirmed its choice to maintain manufacturing ranges regular by means of March, extending a pause on deliberate output will increase”.
“Total, the market might proceed to see a draw back tilt with the IEA anticipating world provide to rise by about 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026 and demand by solely about 860,000 barrels per day, implying a big surplus,” he went on to state.
A press release posted on OPEC’s web site on November 30 revealed that, in a gathering held that day, the eight OPEC+ nations “reaffirmed their choice on November 2, 2025, to pause manufacturing increments in January, February, and March 2026 resulting from seasonality”.
A separate assertion posted on OPEC’s web site on November 30 highlighted that the fortieth OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial assembly happened that day. That assertion outlined that the taking part nations determined to “reaffirm the Framework of the Declaration of Cooperation, signed on 10 December 2016 and additional endorsed in subsequent conferences” and “reiterate the essential significance of adhering to full conformity and the compensation mechanism”.
In addition they determined to “reaffirm the extent of general crude oil manufacturing for OPEC and non-OPEC Taking part International locations within the DoC as agreed within the thirty eighth OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Assembly till 31 December 2026” and “reaffirm the mandate of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) to intently assessment world oil market situations, oil manufacturing ranges, and the extent of conformity with the DoC, assisted by the OPEC Secretariat,” the assertion outlined.
“In reference to the choice of the thirty ninth ONOMM; mandating the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to evaluate taking part nations’ most sustainable manufacturing capability (MSC) for use as reference for the 2027 manufacturing baselines for all DoC nations, the Taking part International locations authorised the mechanism developed by the Secretariat,” the assertion went on to notice.
This OPEC assertion additionally revealed that the nations determined to “reaffirm the framework of the Constitution of Cooperation (CoC), signed on 2 July 2019, and request the OPEC Secretariat to develop a plan and convert it into applications to attain the total goals of the CoC, because it was initially mandated, and current it to the forty first OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Assembly”.
The forty first OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial assembly is scheduled to happen on June 7, 2026, in response to the assertion.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
