An announcement posted on OPEC’s web site on Sunday revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day” in a digital assembly held that day.
“The eight OPEC+ international locations, which beforehand introduced further voluntary changes in April and November 2023 … met nearly on 2 November 2025, to evaluation international market situations and outlook,” the assertion famous.
“In view of a gentle international financial outlook and present wholesome market fundamentals, as mirrored within the low oil inventories, the eight collaborating international locations determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day further voluntary changes introduced in April 2023,” it added.
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The assertion mentioned this adjustment will probably be carried out in December 2025. It additionally introduced that, “past December, attributable to seasonality, the eight international locations … determined to pause the manufacturing increments in January, February, and March 2026”.
In keeping with a desk accompanying the assertion, Saudi Arabia and Russia’s December adjustment quantities to 41,000 barrels per day, every. Iraq’s involves 18,000 barrels per day, the UAE’s is 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait’s is 10,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan’s is 7,000 barrels per day, Algeria’s is 4,000 barrels per day, and Oman’s is 4,000 barrels per day, the desk outlined.
The desk highlighted that December 2025, January 2026, February 2026, and March 2026 “required manufacturing” is 10.103 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.574 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.273 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.411 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.580 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.569 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 971,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 811,000 barrels per day for Oman.
“The eight collaborating international locations reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day could also be returned partly or in full topic to evolving market situations and in a gradual method,” the OPEC assertion famous.
“The international locations will proceed to intently monitor and assess market situations, and of their steady efforts to help market stability, they reaffirmed the significance of adopting a cautious method and retaining full flexibility to proceed pausing or reverse the extra voluntary manufacturing changes, together with the beforehand carried out voluntary changes of the two.2 million barrels per day introduced in November 2023,” it added.
“The eight OPEC+ international locations additionally famous that this measure will present a possibility for the collaborating international locations to speed up their compensation,” it continued.
The assertion went on to notice that the eight international locations “reiterated their collective dedication to attain full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, together with the extra voluntary manufacturing changes that will probably be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)”.
“In addition they confirmed their intention to completely compensate for any overproduced quantity since January 2024,” it mentioned.
In keeping with the assertion, the eight OPEC+ international locations will maintain month-to-month conferences to evaluation market situations, conformity, and compensation. The eight international locations are subsequent scheduled to satisfy on November 30, 2025.
In a separate assertion posted on OPEC’s website on Sunday, the OPEC Secretariat introduced that it had obtained up to date compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
A desk accompanying this assertion confirmed that these compensation plans quantity to a complete of 185,000 barrels per day in October, 236,000 barrels per day in November, 274,000 barrels per day in December, 393,000 barrels per day in January 2026, 574,000 barrels per day in February 2026, 718,000 barrels per day in March 2026, 681,000 barrels per day in April 2026, 738,000 barrels per day in Could 2026, and 822,000 barrels per day in June 2026.
Analyst Take
In a market replace despatched to Rigzone on Sunday by the Rystad Power workforce, Rystad Power’s Head of Geopolitical Evaluation, Jorge León, mentioned, “with immediately’s determination, OPEC+8 may have unwound 2.91 million barrels per day because the course of began again in April”.
“Like within the group’s latest conferences, this spherical additionally provided a shock; that got here from its determination to pause any manufacturing will increase throughout the first quarter of 2026,” he added.
“That is the primary time since April 2025 that the group won’t elevate output. Sure, OPEC+ is blinking, nevertheless it’s a calculated transfer,” he continued.
“Sanctions on Russian producers have injected a brand new layer of uncertainty into provide forecasts, and the group is aware of that overproducing now may backfire later. By pausing, OPEC+ is defending costs, projecting unity, and shopping for time to see how sanctions play out on Russian barrels,” he went on to state.
In its newest market replace, Rystad famous that “all eyes are actually on November 30”.
“The choice retains the narrative easy; self-discipline immediately, flexibility tomorrow and no sudden strikes earlier than 30 November,” Rystad mentioned.
“The upcoming OPEC+ Ministerial assembly can be more likely to take a look at the interior cohesion of the group. It’s understood that the group will talk about, assess and re-establish quotas for every of the member international locations,” it added.
“Traditionally, discussing particular person quotas has created inside tensions as the inducement of each nation is to push for a better quantity,” it continued.
In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) workforce on Monday, SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop mentioned a “halt in OPEC+ quotas exhibits that 2026 will not be a massacre for oil” however added that there’s “nonetheless surplus within the playing cards”.
“Brent crude began up 0.4 p.c this morning on the information that OPEC+ will maintain quotas unchanged in Q1-26 following one other improve of 137,000 barrel per day in December however following a quick bounce it has fallen again and is now down barely at $64.7 per barrel,” Schieldrop highlighted.
“The halt in quotas for Q1-26 doesn’t do something to projected surplus in Q1-26, so rising shares and a stress in the direction of the draw back for oil continues to be the primary image forward,” Schieldrop warned.
“Nevertheless it exhibits that OPEC+ hasn’t forgotten in regards to the value. It nonetheless cares about value. It tells us that 2026 will not be a massacre or graveyard for oil with a median Brent crude oil value of say $45 per barrel,” Schieldrop mentioned.
“The 12 months will probably be managed by OPEC+ in accordance with the way it needs to play it in a stability between value and quantity the place the group is in a strategy of taking again market share,” he added.
Schieldrop famous within the report that there are growing feedback within the sector that the oil market “will probably be higher later, after some slight ache and surplus in 2026”.
“That is undoubtedly what it appears to be like like,” Schieldrop mentioned.
“The manufacturing forecast for non-OPEC+ manufacturing by the U.S. EIA [Energy Information Administration] is mainly sideways with no progress from September 2025. Thus, past surplus 2026, this locations OPEC+ in a really comfy scenario and with good market management,” he added.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC for touch upon the Rystad market replace and the SEB report. On the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
