In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report despatched to Rigzone by the SEB workforce on Friday, SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop and SEB commodities analyst Ole R. Hvalbye highlighted that the oil market is “nervous for the approaching weekend”.
“Brent crude traded in a wide range of $69.16-72.61 per barrel together with optimism and pessimism over the continued Iranian nuclear negotiations in Geneva yesterday,” the analysts stated within the report.
“In the long run it closed just about unchanged at $70.75 per barrel (-0.1 %). Brent crude is up one % to $71.4 per barrel this morning because the market is getting nervous for what would possibly occur throughout the weekend,” they added.
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Within the report, the analysts outlined 4 oil worth eventualities, flagging costs as little as $55 per barrel and as excessive as $150 per barrel.
Underneath the primary state of affairs, U.S. President Donald Trump is characterised as a “deal/peace maker”.
“The negotiations are profitable. A nuclear deal is signed. Iranian oil flows unhindered into the worldwide market,” the analysts projected underneath this state of affairs.
“Kushner (Trump’s son in regulation) and Witkoff (Trump’s earlier enterprise accomplice) inks a variety of worthwhile enterprise offers with Iran. Capital is flowing into Iran. Manufacturing rises. The Brent crude oil worth shortly falls to under $60 per barrel,” they added.
“Relying on OPEC+ management and administration the oil worth averages $55-64 per barrel for 2026. Republicans carry out favorably in November elections,” they continued.
Underneath the second state of affairs, the SEB analysts theorize Trump “wiggles out” and the “state of affairs fades with no deal and now struggle”.
“Brent falls again in the direction of the $60 per barrel line. OPEC+ controls the market via the yr and Brent averages $64 per barrel,” they added.
Underneath the third state of affairs, the SEB analysts flag a “contained assault”.
“U.S./Israel assaults Iran. Restricted Iranian retaliation as final yr: Brent spikes to $80-90 per barrel, however then shortly fall again as there isn’t any actual lack of provide. Else very like 1). Brent averages near $64 per barrel for 2026,” they added.
Underneath the fourth state of affairs, the SEB analysts warn of “chaos”.
“U.S./Israel assaults Iran and Iran retaliates forcefully. Prolonged state of affairs. Probably the most potent weapon Iran has towards Trump is the oil worth. Full deal with halting provide of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. Both totally or partially. Higher with partially for longer than totally for shorter,” the SEB analysts warn.
“Market panics. Nobody is aware of how lengthy it should final because it occurs. Brent shortly spikes to $100-150 per barrel. It’s not sufficient to scare Trump. Actual infliction of harm is important,” they added.
“The state of affairs must be prolonged over a number of months perhaps even all the way in which to November with a median oil worth of $80-100 per barrel with the intention to damage Trump within the midterm elections by way of oil costs, by way of gasoline costs by way of his voters,” they continued.
Within the report, the SEB analysts warned that “at present, it appears to be like like state of affairs 4 would be the most probably state of affairs”.
“Whereas the market and Trump could also be betting on a mixture of one, two and three with restricted threat for 4. Trump might be very assured that he can keep away from 4. That’s his expertise from earlier occasions,” they added.
Rigzone has contacted the White Home, the Iranian Ministry of International Affairs, and Israel’s Ministry of International Affairs for touch upon the SEB report. On the time of writing, not one of the above have responded to Rigzone.
In a SEB report despatched to Rigzone on Wednesday by the SEB workforce, Schieldrop famous that Brent was buying and selling “sideways at $71 per barrel ready for what’s to come back”.
“It has traded near sideways this week because it was lifted greater by escalating struggle threat on the finish of final week,” Schieldrop warned.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
