International oil demand averaged 103.6 million barrels per day month-to-date by July 6.
That’s what J.P. Morgan analysts acknowledged in a analysis be aware despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group late Wednesday. Consumption rose by 1.7 million barrels per day over year-ago ranges and in step with J.P. Morgan’s printed estimates, the be aware outlined.
“Yr to this point, international oil demand continues to trace a 1.33 million barrel per day development in contrast with our November projections of a 1.6 million barrel per day gain,” the analysts stated within the be aware.
- Advertisement -
“Nevertheless, a number of the high-frequency indicators out there after July 6 point out an extra advance in oil consumption, including tailwinds to our July demand projections,” they added.
“We imagine a rebound in U.S. and Chinese language air journey exercise, and a weather-related improve in gasoline oil and gasoil use within the Center East, are driving these good points,” they continued.
Within the be aware, J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted that U.S. gasoline demand averaged 9.4 million barrels per day for 2 consecutive weeks, “rising to the best stage in over a 12 months on a four-week common foundation”. The analysts additionally identified that U.S. jet gasoline demand rose to a post-pandemic excessive of 1.8 million barrels per day on a four-week common foundation.
International observable oil inventories (crude and merchandise) drew by 4 million barrels per day within the first week of July, with an eight million barrel per day attract crude considerably offset by a 4 million barrel per day construct in merchandise, the analysts acknowledged within the be aware.
“Throughout the crude draw, the U.S. and China had been accountable for a mixed 19 million barrel draw within the first week of July,” they added.
Taking a look at June, the analysts outlined within the be aware that international observable oil inventories constructed by 11 million barrels in opposition to their expectations of a 34 million barrel draw, “largely pushed by Chinese language re-stocking of 26 million barrels”.
In a separate be aware despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on June 26, analysts at J.P. Morgan stated their monitoring of world oil demand softened by 80,000 barrels per day for the month of June, by June 25, however highlighted that this determine was “nonetheless averaging 1.4 million barrel per day 12 months over 12 months development”.
“The pullback in demand was largely centered in Mexico and Texas, the place tropical storm Alberto induced widespread coastal flooding alongside the Gulf Coast, limiting journey,” the analysts stated in that be aware.
“Yr to this point, international oil demand continues to trace a 1.4 million barrel per day development in comparison with our November projections of 1.57 million barrel per day achieve,” they added.
“The hurricane left a noticeable mark on U.S. gasoline consumption, which got here in under the 9 million barrels per day mark final week for the primary time in three weeks,” they continued.
“Journey exercise has recovered strongly since then, mirrored in a document each day air passenger visitors, with the typical passenger quantity for the present week already 2.3 p.c above the earlier week’s numbers,” they went on to state.
In its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was printed earlier this week, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) projected that international petroleum and different liquid fuels consumption would are available at 102.91 million barrels per day in 2024 and 104.68 million barrels per day in 2025. This determine averaged 101.80 million barrels per day in 2023, in accordance with the STEO.
In its earlier STEO, the EIA projected that international petroleum and different liquid fuels demand would common 102.98 million barrels per day in 2024 and 104.51 million barrels per day in 2025. In that STEO, the EIA revealed that this determine averaged 101.90 million barrels per day in 2023.
“We forecast that international consumption of liquid fuels will improve by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“Many of the anticipated demand development is from non-OECD nations. In 2024, consumption of liquid fuels by non-OECD nations will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, offsetting a small decline in OECD, significantly in Europe and Japan,” it added.
“In 2025, non-OECD consumption rises by 1.4 million barrels per day, largely in China, the place we anticipate consumption will improve by 0.4 million barrels per day, and India, with a 0.3 million barrel per day improve,” it continued.
“We anticipate OECD consumption rises by 0.4 million barrels per day, led by consumption development in the US,” the EIA went on to state.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
